Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Is your Retirefund swimming in bonds? Beware the under tow, and the sharks!
The massive rush into the bond market this year could be the top of a bubble that will sink many investors who believe (wrongly) that bonds are always a safe bet when allocating your retirefunds.
On the contrary, bonds can bubble like any other investment, and that bubble is starting to become so obvious, a bust may be lurking as early as this fall.
The bond market is beginning to send out warning signs and you ignore those signs at your financial peril. Last weeks stock rally, as short as it was, came at the expense of the bond market, and in your case (retail investors) bond funds.
Anyone reading these posts knows full well my aversion (distaste, distrust and dissatisfaction) of the managed mutual fund industry, and that, my friends, surely includes managed bond funds. (see: Average investors getting screwed)
Those fund managers will make their outrageous fees until the exodous (which they will lead) when this market pops, and it will pop. You my friends, will be left holding the bag of worthless paper once more, unless of course, you get out now while the getting is good.
The first sign of any interest rate hikes will tip this baby elephant over the cliff.
Don't wait for that, because the big dogs will see it coming long before you do and they run a lot faster than you can.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Small cap and Micro Caps are the new BIG in investing!
That has been the mantra of the entire investment industry for 40 years now. However the cracks in the dam of diversification widen immensely when the markets go sideways, or begin to fall, as they are this year (and probably for years to come). Here are some reasons why diversification may well be a huge money pit over the next few years.
In a previous article, I explained how average investors are getting screwed by the mutual fund industry.
Ten years ago, if you invested in most diversified mutual funds, you would have made approximately zero on all your investments to date. (Ten years of ZERO!!!) The mutual fund industry is the most bloated, overpaid and valueless industry in the world today, in this writers humble opinion. They charge you fees from 2-4% for essentially "not managing" your investments. Many of the managed mutual funds out there are actual closet indexers (they follow the index of the country or market they are invested in by buying the large cap stocks as they appear in order in the index) You would do better simply by buying an index fund yourself and paying the .05% fee instead of 3-4% fees. Why is that?
Well there are several reasons for this behavior not the least of which is the fact that (and this has been subject of scientific studies) a trained monkey, picking stocks over an extended period utilizing diversification, on a statistical basis, does as well, within 1 or 2%, as almost all of these fund managers. In other words, they have no specific skill in picking stocks using diversification. Diversification works when there is a bull market, but there is no protection when markets plunge (as in 2000 or 2008) and the next two years could be absolutely devastating for fund investors. That is probably why there has been $50B (approx) removed from these funds over the summer. Being long term investors, most of those won't be back to the market anytime soon unless it is to pick specific stocks in small bull markets.
There have been many studies over the years in regard to this. In the current market, being manipulated by governments around the world employing Quantitative Easing (QE), large traders like GS, JP and the like using super computers and flash trading, in a market notable only for it's very thin trading, the word that comes to mind is "fraudulent" when it comes to stock prices, especially the large cap supposedly "blue chip" variety.
The fund industry wants you to believe that diversification will be your investment savior, however many savvy investors today know too well how this industry works. Just ask yourself, were you diversified in 2000? Were you diversified in 2008? Did your fund have investments in Enron? AIG?, Dot Bombs? Fannie? Freddie? Nortel?, JDS Uniphase? Citi, GM, Chrysler, AA, etc etc??? Did your funds make you "ANY" money at all? We need to change our thinking, now, and dramatically!
There is, in fact, a way to use this bloated industry, to pad your Retirefund over the next few years. There are indeed stocks out there, flying under the radar (thankfully) of this bloated industry, simply because no tainted ratings agency has noticed them (yet) or because these small caps are not yet big enough for the industry to promote to fund managers. I,m not talking about the \'under $2B\' range of stocks that the managers consider small cap. I,m talking about really small, micro cap entities that are forging niches in future markets that haven't hit the big time yet. That is where smart investors are looking in this market.
Find those gems that have a foot hold in new markets, are front runners with nimble and smart management, in a market soon to be targetted by the big dogs of the fund industry.
Now you are on to something. Something that truly makes sense, in a senseless market. Today, you have at your finger tips all of the technology you need and more. More than the so called experts have ever had in the past, so, use it! Do your home work. Dig for information, and evidence of advantage in micro caps, and stay on top of that information. Prosperity will follow.
Using this simple strategy last year, I advanced my own retirefund by over 220 per cent. Last month alone, I doubled my money on one stock and I believe that over the next two months, it will double again.
This month another of our picks is up 36% on discovery of a new green tech energy process that may revolutionize how we deal with (and utilize) carbon emissions.
Are they all home runs? Of course not. Anyone who tells you they only hit home runs is lying through their teeth. However, if you hit a home run every 5th time at bat, then you will be a heavy hitter over the year. If you get a single, a double or a walk on 3 of the other 4, you will win the batting championship, hands down.
Here's to your Retirefund!
HP
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Thursday, March 18, 2010
And the number of the beast was 666!
(Level of the S & P on March 9th 2009!)
After all, apocalyptic predictions of the world ending are said to point to the year 2012! Is Nouriel Roubini an economist or a prophet in the mold of Nostradamus or even St John the Apostle (who wrote the book of revelation) Did Nostradamus and St John, along with the ancient Mayans receive a direction from God that points to 2012 as "the year of destruction"? Did Dr. Roubini receive the same message two centuries later?
Is Jim Cramer one of the false prophets foretold by St John? Is his recent prophecy of a rising bull market helping to cause a wild party of unbridled optimism when the world, according to Prophet, Roubini, is about to go to hell in a hand basket? Hell, even Charlie Munger of Berkshire-Hathaway thinks that 2012 is the year of doom. (see- Charlie Munger). His partner, the venerable Warren Buffet remains an eternal optimist, buying a Chinese car company and an American Railroad in the past year. Others are warning of a future of Hyper Inflation.
I certainly don't have all the answers, but these guys believe they do. However with sentiment so split between the giddy bull soothsayers and the doom and gloom naysayers, how can we mere mortals find our way through the investment jungle that has become today's market. Well, in point of fact, it has always been a jungle and experience teaches that when people are in turmoil, especially investors, opportunities usually abound. The problem is, how do you find such opportunities, when your Retirefund won't allow you to invest in Berkshire-Hathaway.
In previous articles I have made the argument for gold. I have told you about the coming Lithium boom. I have mentioned hidden gems in Mobile Web stocks, and (besides Lithium) I have given you my ideas on green energy stocks and new clean technologies that are not quite on the radar of the big dogs just yet.
I have told you to invest in great companies like TD Bank and Encana, over the long term. I have warned you about the gluttons of Wall Street, and I have tried to steer you away from the leeches in the Managed mutual fund industry. I even advised you twice, last year and this year, to hold on to your Loonies!
More moderate voices can be heard through the din of disaster scenarios and scare mongering. One of those is Peter Bisson, a director of McKinsey and Co, of Stamford, Connecticut. In a recent interview with the Globe and Mail, titled, a great re-balancing of economic power, he makes some interesting points about the current markets. Some of his thoughts:
"The financial crisis is just a little earthquake in a long process of fundamental economic realignment. !"
"globalization is basically a good thing. It has lifted huge numbers of people out of poverty"
"For the first time in hundreds of years, there will be more growth i
"the work force in a lot of the West still fits a 20th century economy. In the U.S., there is only 3 per cent unemployment in the most highly educated groups, but 30 per cent unemployment in the bottom 10 per cent of education. We are drifting toward this chronically unemployed group because skill sets don't match."
"Canada is a big beneficiary. This huge [emerging markets] urbanization and this doubling of the world's middle class drives very significant real increases in resource demand of pretty much all types." (and Canada is a supplier of many of those resources)!
"Inequality between nations is evening out; inequality within nations is getting worse. That is politically volatile, and you can't escape that reality."
And finally:
"The risk in the system today is more on the individual. On average each year, 15 per cent of U.S. households can now expect their incomes to fall as much as 50 per cent. That's a third higher than in the 1970s."
I encourage you to read the entire interview at: GlobeandMail.com
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Average investors are getting screwed and are exposed to the elements of Wall Street excess!
If you are Investing in managed mutual funds, your getting screwed. At very least, you are exposed to the elements and frozen in one spot.Does your investment adviser think you should be in mutual funds? Does he work for the fund company? Is he more interested in "his" portfolio than yours? Is he texting on his blackberry while you are handing over your meager Retirefunds? does he forget your name? Did he ever know your name?
"The Rich" as Voltaire said, "Require an abundant supply of the poor"!
The monstrous mutual fund industry is built on a simple premise. You give your hard earned money to someone you know, usually only by reputation. That fund manager then invests your money in the markets, in stocks, bonds, gold, commodities and/or companies that are involved in any of these or a myriad of other businesses. Depending on the fund(s) prospectus (an explanation of how it invests your money), you could be invested in any country in the world (or group of countries) The fund manager is paid a salary along with all of his staff, and their company earns money by charging you a percentage of all monies invested. The manager can also earn bonuses based on his agreement with the company, whether he performs or doesn't perform.
Congratulations! You have just hired one of the highest priced bookies in history! They make money whether you win lose or draw. Usually it is lose or draw in the modern mutual fund industry.
Fully 60% of "all" fund managers "do not" beat the index of the market they are invested in. Many are "closet indexers". In other words, they say they are active managers but invest your money by simply matching the index (buying the companies that make up the Index in the exact proportion as they are weighted to the Index). Usually they collect anywhere from 2%-3% of your portfolio, every year, for this so-called management. Why do you keep shoveling your hard earned money into this bloated, gluttonous industry? There is no other industry out there that is so grossly overpaid for providing so little.
This industry got it's start at a time in history when average people were "shut out" of the information streams that made fortunes for those in the know. With the advent of the internet, trading platforms, trading software etc, those days are gone. At the beginning of this industry, managed mutual funds were developed as a way that average people could invest and "diversify" their investments like the big dogs always did when they bought individual stocks, but only with a savvy money manager in control of their savings. It was a good premise that, initially, worked for it's investors but it has morphed into a monster that eats billions of your dollars, every single year. Like every other investment scheme ever created by the Gluttons of Wall Street, it has been milked dry, to the point where it no longer resembles the initial product, and value has dried up like a lake bed in Death Valley.
Three distinguished professors of finance studied the returns of 2076 actively managed mutual funds over 21 years ending in 2006. Their conclusion: By applying a sensitive statistical test to separate luck from skill, the study found that 99.4% of the fund managers had no genuine stock picking ability. In other words, with today's information avalanche and trading software, "you" can pick stocks and do as well as most of these vultures .
If you feel you just don't know enough about investing or don't have enough time to research individual stocks, and you feel you must give your retirefund over to someone else to invest, then I promise, if you give it to me I will invest it in an "Index fund" which only costs .5% and I will only charge you .5% for my troubles. In that way you will already be ahead by 1%-2%. You will also beat 60% of "all" fund managers in the world and I will become rich on the shoulders of your hard earned money.
Or, you could just invest in the Index fund yourself and cut out the middle man (Me).
(Shoot, I just talked myself out of millions)
I ho
pe you get the picture. (pun intended)Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Turbulent Markets are like White Water Rafting! You need a professional guide with proven experience!
Image via Wikipedia
Article:
I was recently looking at some pictures of a white water rafting trip I took with my wife ten years ago. As I was remembering the excitement and fear I started to think it had a lot in common with financial Planning.
First there is a starting point and a destination you are heading towards, the journey contains a lot of emotions, it can be hard work, and a lot of fun.
We had three choices; the Dead River (pretty calm), the Kennebec (has a little excitement), and the Penobscot River which had several Class 5 rapids to navigate. Which one you choose reflects your appetite for risk and excitement and the speed in which you make it to your destination.
We chose the Penobscot River which had the most excitement of course. Now you can choose to take the trip on your own or with a guide. We chose the guide because we did not have the knowledge or the skill to make this trip on our own. Our guide was experienced, looked fit, and gave us a brief talk on what to expect before we headed down the river. His experience and
calmness inspired confidence in us and we were comfortable following his directions. He kept his instructions and strategy for getting down the river quite simple (kind of like a good financial planner).
Now there is more then one way to get down the river. You could swim it, which our guide did occasionally on his day off, you could canoe it, kayak it, or raft it as a group. We chose the raft (safety in numbers/diversification).
We started off in calm water for about an hour and then navigated a couple of class 2 rapids which were pretty easy and raised our excitement levels. The higher the number the more intense the rapids are. Class 6 is the highest. You could feel your pulse staring to accelerate and your senses heighten as we headed into a Class 4 Rapid known as guide killer hole. We were paddling hard taking direction from our guide and all of a sudden I was in the water wondering what happened. My life jacket (kind of like an Insurance policy ) kept me a float as I sucked in a couple of mouthfuls of water and decided to pick my feet up and enjoy the ride, knowing that eventually I would reach calmer waters (kind of like the Stock Market ).
Eventually the raft caught up to me and they pulled me on board to find out that my wife had also gone into the water as well. She thought it was so romantic that I jumped in to save her. With both of us back in the boat we headed to land to enjoy a steak barbecue and look at the Class 5 rapids we would be heading into on a full stomach right after lunch.
Knowing what to expect at this point helped, however as I looked at the thundering rapids I did briefly entertain the thought of bailing and not going through with the rest of our plan for making it to the end of the river (goal). The final stretch of our journey to our destination was intense and exciting and we all made it while staying in the raft. At the end we turned the raft around and paddled back into the rapids and surfed the white water. What a blast!
As we approached our exit point and could see the opening in the trees and our bus to take us back to the cabin it was a feeling of relief and self satisfaction that we faced our fears and accomplished our goal.
There were a number of things that made it a successful trip. First you had to actually start it. As Nike says "Just do it". Second you had to overcome some fears and third you had to stick to the plan despite some obstacles and set backs. Finally in deciding to go for it you made yourself as aware of the risks as possible and then managed them. We did this by first checking out the company we used, selecting a confidence inspiring guide, and wearing a life jacket and a helmet. After doing all of this we were able to focus on enjoying the journey as well as the good feelings and personal growth that come with achieving your goal.
Rick Coyle is a Financial Advisor/Coach with Dundee Private Investors Inc. He has 30 years experience in Financial Services. The opinions expressed in this newsletter are the opinions of Rick Coyle and are not to be construed as the opinions of Dundee Private Investors Inc or any affiliated company. The statements in this newsletter should not be construed as specific advice and may not be appropriate for your unique situation. Rates of return indicate past performance and past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Mutual funds are not guaranteed or insured.
Rick can be reached at 902-678-1727. Email rcoyle @ ns.sympatico.ca
Friday, July 10, 2009
Even a broken clock is right twice per day!
Image via Wikipedia
There are investors and there are traders. Traders trade! Investors invest! However, there is one thing they have in common. None of them can "time the market". Truly, if they could time the market, many of the talking heads on CNBC would have made billions on last years crash, or this springs bounce, instead of keeping their jobs trying to sell us on the benefits of the "hot stock of the day".
For the average Joe or Jill, a good practice is to "Invest for the long term" in increments using dollar cost averaging (ie: have your investment money put into your favorite mutual fund every paycheck) so that you can level out the gyrations in the market. If you are a little bolder and want to do some of your own homework, then Invest in individual stocks of solid companies with great products, market niches and good management
No one is right all the time! Not even the investment greats like Warren Buffett or George Soros. If they make big mistakes, and they do, then how many more mistakes are made by the coffee fueled, adrenaline pumped, talking heads on CNBC (fast money, Cramer, Kudlow, Kneale etc) Just because you took their advice and got lucky once, doesn't mean they are going to be right next time. They make mistakes, just like you do. Just like I do. Just like we all do.
It is important to do your own homework when investing. If you don't feel you have the time or expertise and you just want to invest in mutual funds, then at least do enough homework to pick a good manager. Investing in mutual funds is essentially investing in good management. 60% of fund managers today "Do not beat the Index". In other words, if you just invested in a basic index fund, with a lower fee base (because it is tied to the Index of the market you are investing in) on average, you will beat 60% of the mutual fund managers out there who get fat fees, for their so called expertise.
Nobody sees a bull market in our near future right now, but remember this. Bull markets always climb a "wall of worry". Bull markets are never identified until most of the profits are already made. Bull markets love inflation. A weak currency (read u.s. dollar) always increases inflation. With the current trend to deflation, markets in turmoil, with investors sitting on the side lines and the Chicken Little's clucking that the "sky is falling", Now may be a great time for contrary investors to take the opposite view and invest in a basic Index fund that costs less than 1% in fees. Or maybe not!
You can always keep your dollars on the sidelines, where they are sure to lose value over time. You could invest in mutual funds administered by a good manager who's track record shows a consistant return better than the Index.
Or, you could act on the next hot tip from one of the talking heads on CNBC. After all, "even a broken clock is right twice per day"!
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Half of a BRIC may be more valuable,
Than a whole BRIC !
Image by De Balie via Flickr
No matter the last 15-20 years of supposed free market reforms, China is still a communist country with democracy only a distant dream! Time and again, they have proven that the rule of international law does not apply to their country. Copyright infringement is rampant and far reaching, graft is still part of local and national government business, and as for human rights, well, they don't apply. Lately, the country's leadership has been working, through the proxy of it's nationally owned companies, to soak up much of the worlds raw material, from oil and gas, to fertilizer, coal, and ingredients for making steel.
No supposed "free marketer" dares to challenge policy in China, for fear of being ostracized by the great, red, business machine. Just ask Google! Ominously, the recent run up in the Chinese markets is driven mostly be inexperienced Chinese investors, with visions of sugar plums dancing in their uneducated investment heads. That can only end badly with many of them learning the hard way that what goes straight up, always comes down. In the final analysis, will the rules of business, be guarded by the rule of law? Maybe, but, contrary to many other wide eyed investors, I'm not putting my money on it, or into China.
Russia has a shrinking population, a suspect banking system and clings to a Government structure of "strong man rule" under the guise of democracy. Russia has proven time and again, that they have more crime bosses, than CEO's. Just ask any of a dozen good companies who have arrived from the west during the past 15 years, only to be cheated out of billions in real estate, oil, gas, you name it. The names of these business are too numerous to mention, but they certainly know who they are. Or ask any of a number of honest journalists who have challenged the status quo in that country (Oh, sorry, you can't ask them, because they are dead).Until a proper democracy and the rule of law replace King Putin, I won't be risking any of my meager Retire funds there either.
That, my friends, leaves us with half a BRIC!
India is the "largest democracy in the world", and it just elected a very pro business government that cannot be voted out of office for the next five years. Companies like Tata Motors, Taj Hotels and Resorts, Bajaj Holdings & Investment, Nadir Godrej-led Godrej Industries and lender "Yes Bank" may well be the Microsoft, P&G or Google of the 21st century. Business Week certainly seems to think so! India has a disproportionate number of the worlds software engineers as is evidenced by the number of Indian nationals who emigrated to Silicon Valley during it's heyday, and who now are back in India leading cutting edge companies. Does India have it's problems? Sure it does, but during this global recession, what country doesn't? Exactly! Many believe that India is right now, where China was 20 years ago with regard to business development. Does this sound like a good prospect for your retirefund? It does to me. You can buy a pure Indian Fund on the NYSE.
Brazil is already, so far ahead of the rest of the world in green energy production that it is entirely self sufficient. Besides owning great reserves of oil, almost 50% of it's energy is derived from locally produced ethanol, and they are, far and away, the world leaders in this technology. In Aerospace, Embraer, is a world leader in the building of regional jets in competition with Canada's Bombardier. Banco do Brasil is not in nearly the jam that many American Banks find themselves in, and other companies such as Brazil Telecoms (telecommunications) and Braskem (chemicals) are now on international investors radar screens. Yes, they also have their problems, but they are a growing phenomenon, and Brazil is also a democracy.You can buy a Brazil Fund currently on the NYSE.
Now if we can just get the fund managers to come up with a basket of great companies from these two emerging powerhouses, you might be able to throw just half a BRIC into your Retirefund, and reap the rewards.
Are you listening IShares?
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Reviewing the best investment vehicle ever made! for the Average worker.
Image via Wikipedia
When I say it is the best investment vehicle ever built for the "average working stiff", (arguably, the rsp is a close second) that is because it has a limit of $5,000 per year that you can put in the account. Large and institutional investors aren't very interested, but I sure am, and so should you. Now here's why!
In this "after tax account" you can put cash, GIC's, money market funds, mutual funds, stocks, bonds or just about anything trading in the capital markets. Now here is the "Golden" part: Every single dollar you make in this fund is "TAX FREE" when you draw it out. Let me repeat that and expand upon it. In Canada, where the nominal tax rate for many middle class workers is 42%, your savings (read investment)income will not be taxed!!
You can put a maximum of $5,000 into this account every year and in the years which you find yourself short, you carry that amount into the proceeding years. In January I opened two such accounts one for me and one for my wife. We transferred the limit into each. In one account I bought stock in my favorite company (see previous posts) and since January, I have to date, booked a gain of 61%. That money is TAX FREE when I take it out!
Now even if you use this account in a more conservative fashion, let's say you buy an Index fund, or any mutual funds and you book 8% per year. When you draw it out it is, as I enjoy saying, "TAX FREE".
One of the best strategies for increasing wealth is to reduce your tax burden where you can. I have never seen a better vehicle for this strategy, for the average working stiff, since the advent of the RRSP (u.s. equivalent 401K).
If you haven't already, go (no run!) to your nearest bank or investment house and set up one of these accounts immediately. Fill it with your yearly quota faithfully, every year. Spread your investments around in it so that your retirefund is not all in one basket (buy stocks, bonds, mutual funds etc) (let me correct that, stay away from bond funds this year) If you are in your 20's (those who are truly in the "drivers seat"! more in future blogs) and you don't know much about investing, buy index funds initially. Do it every year, and your retirement will be sweet indeed.
Even if you are just saving up for a major purchase like a car, a home etc, this is the vehicle to use. So, USE IT!!
Monday, June 8, 2009
Is the Lottery your Retirefund?
Image by Renegade98 via Flickr
The plan is not the problem. The "execution" of the plan is. I am constantly surprised (and then again maybe not) at the number of people who have told me exactly these words ( in a joking manner of course) when asked about their retirement. Sadly, for many, it is not a joke.
Statistics for the Baby Boom Generation, and the top of Gen X indicate that over 50% of people surveyed have saved "nothing" for retirement. Let me repeat that, "nothing"! Many more have "some savings and investments, but not enough to retire and will most likely keep working beyond 65 (unless of course, they win a lottery).
You know, it is never too late to invest. There is a well known saying that, "The best time to invest in the market is 25 years ago. The next best time is Right now"! The stock market has been the driver of wealth for 100 years. It will be the driver of wealth for the next 100 years. At this time of uncertainty and worry, it may be a good time to jump back into the market. Summer rallies are not a common occurrence, but they do happen.
Get good advice, invest over time (not in one chunk) spread your investments around many stocks/funds. (The same strategy that spawned the mutual fund industry). Don't listen to the naysayers, for they will surely come and question your sanity. When the naysayers (friends, family, co-workers) begin to tell you how you are wasting your money, ask them if the lottery is their Retirefund! Then watch them squirm.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
SiliconInvestor likes my favorite stock.....hmmmm
Image by Getty Images via Daylife
Mr. Reid believes that this stock is greatly undervalued and has great upside potential due to it's strong patent portfolio.
In the interest of disclosure, In early March I increased our holdings 10 fold in this Ottawa based company this was before I read the evaluation at SiliconInvestor.com.) Wi-Lan now holds over 500 patents, the majority of which are in the wireless business.
During this time of uncertainty in the markets, I have solidified some mutual fund holdings into cash or money market funds, while hunting for what I believe are undervalued companies with great upside potential.
To this end I have also increased 10 fold, my investment in Ballard Power Systems as I believe the Obama Administration's push to green energy technology, coupled with the companies long history and strong patent portfolio in the area of fuel cell technology, will serve to help increase the value of these holdings over the next year.
Buying these stocks at what is essentially penny evaluations, reminded me of an old saying passed down to me.
"Look after the pennies and the dollars will look after themselves"!
I am betting these stocks will increase my Retirefund
What do you think?
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Domain Names for sale!

Retirefund.com
Retirefunds.com
Should you wish to make an offer on either of these domains, just click on the name you are interested in to be taken to the auction.
Afternic.com will handle the transaction once a final bid is accepted and will act as an independent third party broker utilizing it's proprietary escrow service to ensure the sale is conducted in a responsible manner.
More Domain names for sale!
