For those of you who have read past articles, you know I am invested in physical gold and silver. Make no mistake, I view these as great investments in this environment. However, this year, it is the gold miners, especially those miners meeting the above criteria, that will out perform the markets this fall, and beyond.
The U.S. dollar is shrinking, and will continue to shrink in the long run. Over the past six months, the U.S. dollar has lost 10% against the Euro! THE EURO!, where countries are lining up from the smallest (Greece) to some of the largest (Spain, and now Italy) at the European credit window.
The European union could, on paper, save Greece and maybe even Ireland and Portugal. But Spain and Italy are both way too big to save. There is now no doubt that the Euro is in crisis and may not even survive, at least in its current form.
The macro picture grows dimmer with each passing month. The debt ceiling crisis in the USA, and the muddying of those waters by both political parties, is becoming the 800 lb gorilla. The Tea Party will have none of it. Their patrons in the Republican party, at the insistance of the TP, are playing brinkmanship with the U.S. economy at this writing. They do not want to extend the ceiling and will not approve ANY kind of tax increase, even though every expert in the field feels tax increases absolutely have to be part of the overall solution to U.S. debt. Democrats are once again, sitting on their hands. The unemployment rate is printed at just over 9%, but if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you. Fully 14.5% of America is now on food stamps! (That's right, 1/7th of the pupulation)
In comparison, the debt problems of Greece is barely a 40 lb monkey in the mechanics of global markets. Even if the U.S. debt ceiling gets raised in the medium term, where does that leave the USD, especially as QE2 ends, and there are not enough buyers of U.S. treasuries to keep up the charade.
The new Gorilla stumbling into the zoo of international finance is the debt problems of Italy, whose economy, over 1 $Trillion and about 25% of the Eurozone, might be considered a 700 lb Gorilla. Greece, Ireland, and Portugal , are one thing, but Spain and Italy are in a different financial league, and if they go, so goes the Euro. Spain has 20% unemployment right now and Italy is more in debt that any of the others.
The golden elephant in the room is, India, which now buys more gold than any other country. China, viewing gold as an alternate currency, however, is catching up. They now allow their citizens, for the first time, to hold physical gold. The Chinese government has actually been quietly encouraging its citizens to do exactly that. Other countries increasing their purchasing of gold include Brazil, Germany, Russia, Indonesia etc. European banks, and by proxy, U.S. banks are no place to invest right now. Get out while you still can.
These problems are not new. The tipping point was circa 2008, and the storm was sidetracked by the biggest financial experiment in history. Yes, there will always be "some" good stocks to buy, but for now:
I want to own gold, and gold miners, of the best quality. I am buying them now!
Well, if the choice is between the Euro and gold, I say gold, hands down!! If the choice is between the U.S. dollar and gold, I still say gold. However, there is a growing chorus singing the praises of dirty old coal, as a solid, short term (6-12 month) investment for your retirefund, possibly, even better than gold.
Image by Beverly & Pack via FlickrAmericans everywhere continue to espouse the view that they live in "the greatest country on earth". This is so ingrained in the American psyche that the words are spoken as a matter of fact, without question. It makes me wonder how the rest of the world views Americans who continue to believe this in the face of a creeping, almost overwhelming sense, that the American century has officially ended.
Oil circa 1909, plastics circa 1955 and Lithium in 2010. Lithium will store our power generated from wind and solar. It will power electric vehicles and improve hybrid plug-in vehicles. It is starting to power the mobile web (smart phones, iphones, ipads, note books and laptops). Every battery used for electric vehicles will require 8 pounds of lithium! We are now invested in six lithium mining stocks. Here are some of them, and the reasons why!
From Ford to Toyota, GM to Honda, and Nissan to BYD , from China to Chile and everywhere in between, auto companies are searching the globe and scrambling to secure their future supply of this commodity as the electric car is about to re-emerge after a 100 year hiatus.
Lithium is used in lithium-ion batteries, (and many new forms of Lithium batteries such as Lithium air, Lithium sulfur etc) glass ceramics, greases, steel, nuclear energy and pharmaceuticals, however, it is the advent of Lithium use as the best material for energy storage in batteries made for the Hybrid and electric vehicle market, that is causing one of the big bull markets of this decade. From Buses to cars and trucks, and every type of vehicle in between including vehicles such as fork lifts, ATV's, motorized bicycles (as in the billion or so made in China and India) skidoo's, seadoos, and everything else that moves, companies are building better electric batteries for these vehicles, and the overwhelming winner of the commodity race is, you guessed it, LITHIUM!!
Buying into a good Lithium play today would be like investing in oil at the turn of the 20th century, or plastics in the 1950's. It will have that much of an impact as the electric car and hybrid plug-ins become more and more common. The explosion in batteries using Lithium Ion technology, Lithium air technology, lithium sulfur or any number of other Lithium based materials currently being researched and produced is occurring so fast, that fortunes will be made, and indead, are already being made.
Scientists, technicians, engineers and lab rats all over the world, are developing lithium energy storage products at this writing. Lithium carbonate is the best element for storing electricity, period. When compared to current technology such as nickel metal hydride batteries, Lithium is twice as light, produces 3 times the power and keeps it's charge up to 5 times longer. Lithium won't just be used for electric vehicles, hybrids, cellphones and laptops including tablet computers, but also on a larger scale, for wind farms and solar farms where energy storage is absolutely crucial to the future of electrical grid technology.
China, recently announced it will stop shipping Lithium and rare earth enements (REE's) to other countries. China sees an opportunity to try and corner the Lithium market while America and Europe are still fending off financial problems and to this end, it has been trying to butter up the left wing government in Bolivia which may hold 50% of the Lithium deposits on the planet. Problem is, Bolivia is a quagmire of political problems for anyone trying to enter the Lithium market there as the president is not receptive to international companies. He wants to develop Bolivia's Lithium deposits "in country". another problem is that this Lithium deposit, while very large, will be expensive to develop because of the large amounts of magnesium and other compounds in the brine.
Other locations for Lithium mining are in hard rock formations(Canada-Quebec), clay formations (Nevada) and in Salars or salt Lakes. (Besides the big deposits in Bolivia, Chile (which currently supplies 60% of the worlds Lithium), as well as Argentina) It is the extraction of Lithium and Potash fromSalars that is the easiest, and cheapest way to mine this very "in-demand" resource.
Today, 60% of all Lithium is produced in the country of Chile!
Chile is really the epicenter of the Lithium boom notwithstanding Bolivia and Argentina, the two other countries that share the Puna Plateau.
The Salar flats of the Andes on the Puna Plateau, contain millions of tons of Lithium carbonate totaling 84% of the worlds known reserves.This Lithium is also the easiest, and cheapest Lithium to extract, as the sun does most of the work, in this, the driest area on the planet.
According to one of the foremost Lithium experts, R. Keith Evans, "Because Mother Nature does most of the work in producing lithium carbonate in this region, it is the greenest source of lithium we know of".
Any other source requires significantly more energy for processing, thus increasing the price." (read hard rock sources) Add to that the fact that Chile recently elected a conservative government that is very friendly to the mining community, and you have the making of a full blown, 5 alarm, bull rush into the Chilean Salar flats by a number of Juniors. Nevada also has similar, but smaller, lithium resources.
Canadian Juniors are leading the way in this boomand they offer the best investment "bang for your buck" so to speak, as investors wake up to the fact that Lithium will power the future of most automobiles. Currently, the top producer of Lithium from the Chilean "Puna Plateau" is Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM). To date, their Lithium production has been a by product of the potash which they mine there, and their stock price is already through the roof. In 2010 they are increasing their production of Lithium to meet increased demand worldwide.
Here are our picks in the Lithium junior miner sector, in order, based on the size of deposits identified, and the purity of the Lithium carbonate to be mined.
PURE LITHIUM PLAYS
1.Salares Lithium (LIT-TSX)owns over 117,000 hectares (288,990 acres approx) in the Atacama region of Chile, encompassing 7 Salars (brine lakes). It is one of the best, pure play Lithium ventures anywhere today with a depth of resource between 170 meters and 300 meters in a region that already produces 50% of the worlds current lithium supply. In fact, SQM, the largest producer of lithium in the world today, may actually be interested in some or all of Salares Lithiums concessions due to their close proximity and the purity of the resource.
Salares Lithium wholly owns 100% of 5 of those Salars, which is unique in the industry and very important in South American mining. Many others "share" deposits on the same properties. Salares now has a giant Lithium footprint, as large as anyone on the planet (read the article: Size matters ) They also have a very focused management team and institutional investors are in on this play.Now SQM may be interested. Analyst opinions on Salares Lithium!
2. Western Lithium (WLC-TSX)owns over 50,000 acres of proven, lithium reserves in Nevada. One of the only Lithium pure plays in the USA with proven reserves. This is one of the worlds largest, proven Lithium deposits at 47 million tons, mine ready, located in mining friendly Nevada with quick access to buyers in North America. Western Lithium should make any lithium investors portfolio. On May 31st Western Lithium will change it's name to Western Lithium USA to more reflect it's intention to supply Lithium to that market. (update- we recently sold our shares in WLC, at a profit of course, to free up cash for the purchase of more Salares Lithium shares)
LITHIUM,GOLD AND RARE EARTH METAL PLAYS
3. The biggest "sleeper" in the space is TNR Gold Corp (TNR-TSX) which is currently flying under the radar of most investors. TNR Owns 16 gold, copper, Lithium, and REE properties in Nevada, Canada, Argentina and Ireland. More importantly, TNR "owns 100% of International Lithium Corp" (ILC) which it will spin off next month in an IPO.
ILC own 9 Lithium brine properties in Argentina, Nevada and Canada, while TNR will retain it's gold, copper and rare earth deposits in Canada and Ireland as well as one Lithium play in Argentina. TNR may actually be the best "short term" play in the sector as it prepares the IPO for International Lithium Corp. as owners of TNR stock will automatically own stock and warrants in International Lithiumwhen it is spun out next month. (one share and one warrant for every 4 shares of TNR) Thereby owning "both" companies after the IPO next month. Institutional Holders of TNR stock include some serious players:
Barrick Gold, Pinetree Capital, Tocqueville Fund, Solitario, and NovaGold.
4. Latin American Minerals Inc. (LAT-TSX)Besides gold, copper and silver, LAT owns a 17.4% stake in Lithium Americas Corp. (LAC) which has a big stake in the Salars on the Argentina side. LAT also owns rare earth properties (REE's). Lithium Americas properties include over 100,000 Hectares encompassing 5 salars (salt lakes) on the Argentina side of the Puna Plateau.You can buy LAT now (currently .20 cents) to own 17.4% of Lithium Americas, (which we have done), or you can buy Lithium Americas (LAC) at the IPO price of $1.80 Strategic Investors in Lithium Americas already include:
Magna International Inc.
Mitsubishi Corporation
PineTree Capital corp.
5. Rodina Minerals (RM-TSX) Besides it's recent acquisitions of Diablillos, Centenario and Ratones in the Salars of Argentina on the Puna Plateau, RM owns a substantial lithium property in Clayton Valley Nevada Rodinia has 100% mineral rights to 50,440 acres in Nevada’s lithium-rich Clayton Valley in Esmeralda County and is currently in the process of assessing the size, quality and processing alternatives of its Lithium Brine Project. Early estimates put the valley’s lithium deposits as high as 700 million kg, ranking it second only in size to the deposits found in Chile.. RM is one of the top Lithium picks of Byron Capital Markets analyst, Dr. Jon Hykawy who is, arguably, one of the foremost Lithium experts in the market today! RM is also a favorite of the gold report.(theaureport.com)
At this writing, all of these stocks can be had for under $1 per share.
There is truly a "fire sale" on these market go-getters who have staked their claim in the Lithium rush of this decade and stand to reap huge rewards for their efforts.
You can invest in the battery companies, (who are battling it out in the technology department) the electric car companies, or the mobile web device makers like Apple, and they are indeed good bets. However, they all need the raw product, and that is Lithium, specifically it is lithium carbonate. The companies listed above with properties in Chile and Nevada, are in the drivers seat as these deposits are already known, are enormous, and will be processed at the lowest cost, because the sun provide most of the energy needed for production, in the driest, most arid places on earth.
The lithium boom will last for at least the next 10 years. As many investors make their fortunes from this 21st century boom, I hope that you are one of them. I certainly intend on being one. Here's to your retirefund!
The International Monetary Fund is again selling gold to bolster it's cash so as to be positioned to help (read bailout) more troubled economies, which seem to be propping up at present, all over Europe. When the IMF sells gold, it usually has a dampening affect on the price. Often, that is the real reason for selling in the first place. However, with China and India in the hunt for more gold reserves, the strategy is set to backfire. Even though China has the 6th largest gold reserves in the world at this writing, it constitutes merely 1.5% of it's entire foreign reserves of over 2 $Trillion. Compare that to European countries like Germany who's gold reserves constitute over 60% of total foreign reserves. France= 61.5% etc etc.
China's gold reserves add up to a measly $29 per citizen, a paltry sum by the standards of developed countries. As China looks to diversify it's FR funds, gold will become a growing part of it's acquisitions. Even if China was to double it's gold reserves, that will only constitute 3% of total FR funds in it's huge and growing piggy bank.
This auction will be moved to the open market, however the IMF will honor bids from Central Banks and China will no doubt be a focal point. India may also look to bolster it's gold reserves, for the second time in 6 months, at this auction. They may even try to hide their intention using a surrogate possibly. Chinese investors will also play a role as their government is telling it's citizens to invest in the precious metal for their savings and as a hedge against inflation.
Gold as a hedge against inflation? Now there's a novel idea! However, there are smart people who believe that such sales are a drag on gold prices. They use history to bolster that argument.
“When the IMF sells, that’s bad news for gold,” said Leonard Kaplan, the president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. “Gold goes lower because there’s more supply.”
In the past this has certainly been the case, however, that past did not include the Peoples Republic of China as a buyer, nor the largest democracy on earth (India). It did not include their citizens, 2.5 Billion in total, as individual investors in gold either. As these two behemoths grow their middle class, and then tell those people to invest in gold, well that changes the dynamic, forever, especially when the known gold reserves currently above ground can fit into a space the size of two Olympic swimming pools.
In a gold rush, that supply can get eaten up in a heartbeat! As Government after government print more fiat currency and pump it into their systems, the argument for gold may turn into the biggest gold rush in history.
There is a trend here that investors should not ignore. It's no secret that countries like China, India and others, as well as their citizens, are wanting to diversify their FR funds away from the U.S. dollar, the Yen and the Euro and gold is in their cross hairs. If you don't hold gold or gold stocks in your portfolio in the current environment, then you are not paying attention.
(Updated March 25th 2010)
We have been high on Ballard Power Systems for awhile now. Today Ballard was added to the new, clean Tech Index on the TSX, and the spike in the stock price (and the high trading volume) is a direct result of that. If you act quickly, you may be able to get in on the upside of this trade.
(Also added to that index was another of our clean tech stocks, Azure dynamics.)
Ballard, situated in Burnaby, a suburb of Vancouver, is the grand daddy of the fuel cell industry. It's founder is considered the father of the hydrogen fuel cell industry and the company has spawned other companies known as "Baby Ballards" like plug power. It has for the past 20 years, been on the driving edge of the green energy revolution.
Ballard has produced working hydrogen fuel cell buses for several cities (Chicago and LA are two) and recently delivered a fleet of 20, brand new, hydrogen fuel cell buses to the Vancouver transit authority. Those buses shuttled athletes and fans by the thousands to the winter Olympic Games in Whistler. The International press also got to ride these buses.
At a time when the world is looking for green energy solutions, and the world press is falling over themselves for stories to run about this part of Canada, Ballard Power Systems showcased to the world a bus that runs on pure hydrogen. You can drink the water from it's tailpipe because that is the only by product of their fuel cells, pure H2O. No doubt, every politician interviewed will mention it and want to be seen standing beside those buses.
Ballard is expanding it's reach into Europe and India as they partner with European companies to supply fuel cells on the continent and they recently signed an agreement with India to supply 10,000 fuel cell powered back-up units for the Indian telecommunications industry for their wireless infrastructure which is ramping up.
No doubt the international reporters will also comment on the fuel cell forklifts Ballard is now supplying to companies from Chicago to Shanghai, and the possibility of stacking their fuel cells to power trucks, ships and to build giant, utility grade generators to power cities. More buses were delivered this week to California, London and Amsterdam. On March 17th 2010, Ballard CEO, John Sheridan, will present at the 9th, Jefferies Global Clean Tech Conference in New York City.
If you like green energy investments then you cannot discount this first mover in the fuel cell space, especially this year, as it ramps up and finally become profitable. Disclaimer: We have owned Ballard Power Systems ( BLD-TSE) (BLDP-Nasdaq) for several years. Over the past 12 months the stock has gained 84%. In the midst of the first pull back of 2010, Ballard was one of the few stocks that actually traded a little higher. We believe it will go higher still. Much higher! Updates: COLLEGE PARK, MD and VANCOUVER, April 27 /CNW/ - Ballard Power Systems (TSX: BLD; NASDAQ: BLDP) today announced the launch of a new center of excellence for the advancement of fuel processing technology, with founding partners University of Maryland (UMD) and U.S. Department of Defense Army Research Laboratory (ARL). The new center - named FuelWorks(TM) - will be located at the University of Maryland in College Park.
This week, India purchased 200 metric tons of gold from the IMF (International Monetary Fund). It amounted to half of all the gold the IMF placed for sale. India bought it to bolster it's foreign reserves account. China is strongly expected to buy up the other half. What does that tell us about gold prices and the decreasing value of the U.S. Dollar. Well, it tells us a lot, and many Americans are not going to like the answer.
The United States dollar has been the worlds reserve currency for the past 50 years, even before the gold standard was dropped. That gold standard, or some form of it, is creeping back into the international psyche as governments and individual investors buy up gold and gold miners in record numbers. There is a very basic, common sense reason for this. The United States dollar is headed lower, maybe a lot lower. It has to. Here's why.
At the start of the George W. Bush administration, the U.S. economy was in the black. Bush was handed a "surplus", the first one in 30 years. During the next 8 years of his administration, the U.S. went into debt to the tune of $10 Trillion by the time Obama took office. In the midst of two wars being fought on two different fronts, W. did what no other U.S. president had ever done at such times of crisis. He cut taxes. Not only that, he did it twice. The result is the debt and deficits the United States have to this day and unless there is a sea change in spending and the tax regime, it will get a lot worse.
This year alone, the U.S. will add $2 Trillion more to their debt. If there are no changes, economists predict that by 2015, the United States will be $23 Trillion in debt. Even the powerful American economy can't take a hit like that. A devaluation in the dollar is probably one of the few ways the U.S. can pull itself out of this mess. In the mean time, other countries, and the citizens of other countries, looking for a better store of value, are turning to the one currency that has been in place for over 6,000 years. No fiat currency has ever replaced gold, although the USD tried very hard, becoming the reserve currency for the world and replacing the gold standard. That gold standard is creeping back, in some form, at this writing.
China has doubled it's gold reserves over the past few years. India just did the same and they both will no doubt continue to buy as their foreign exchange reserves shrink with the U.S. dollar. They want to hold value, not lose value! The Hong Kong government recently moved it's entire gold reserve to a domestic location from London where it was held. China is not only investing in gold, but it is telling it's citizens to do the same. India's citizens have long done this and are the biggest buyers of gold jewelry in the world.
As the U.S. dollar dives, it's stock market is gaining daily. After a recent pullback last week, the U.S. market is again going gang busters. It has to. As the dollar drops, people are investing in good companies as stores of value and their stocks are going up correspondingly, with the dollars demise.
Publicly traded Gold miners have a unique position in all of this. They are stocks and they produce pure gold, thereby gaining from both sides of this gold buying bull market.
Over 95 % of the worlds entire gold supply is now above ground. No wonder, after 6,000 years of mining. Canada, however, is one of the few countries with a number of producing gold mines.
Here are our top picks of these gold miners in order.
The BRIC countries, (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are once again looming large on investors radar screens. For the average, retail investor, there are a number of mutual funds which highlight good companies in, what are considered, four strong, emerging markets. Some of these funds include companies from other Asian and South American countries (Indonesia and Argentina come to mind), but concentrate their portfolio on the BRIC block as they are seen as the emerging tigers of the worlds future economy for various reasons. There is, however, a serious problem with two of them.
No matter the last 15-20 years of supposed free market reforms, China is still a communist country with democracy only a distant dream! Time and again, they have proven that the rule of international law does not apply to their country. Copyright infringement is rampant and far reaching, graft is still part of local and national government business, and as for human rights, well, they don't apply. Lately, the country's leadership has been working, through the proxy of it's nationally owned companies, to soak up much of the worlds raw material, from oil and gas, to fertilizer, coal, and ingredients for making steel.
No supposed "free marketer" dares to challenge policy in China, for fear of being ostracized by the great, red, business machine. Just ask Google! Ominously, the recent run up in the Chinese markets is driven mostly be inexperienced Chinese investors, with visions of sugar plums dancing in their uneducated investment heads. That can only end badly with many of them learning the hard way that what goes straight up, always comes down. In the final analysis, will the rules of business, be guarded by the rule of law? Maybe, but, contrary to many other wide eyed investors, I'm not putting my money on it, or into China.
Russia has a shrinking population, a suspect banking system and clings to a Government structure of "strong man rule" under the guise of democracy. Russia has proven time and again, that they have more crime bosses, than CEO's. Just ask any of a dozen good companies who have arrived from the west during the past 15 years, only to be cheated out of billions in real estate, oil, gas, you name it. The names of these business are too numerous to mention, but they certainly know who they are. Or ask any of a number of honest journalists who have challenged the status quo in that country (Oh, sorry, you can't ask them, because they are dead).Until a proper democracy and the rule of law replace King Putin, I won't be risking any of my meager Retire funds there either.
That, my friends, leaves us with half a BRIC!
India is the "largest democracy in the world", and it just elected a very pro business government that cannot be voted out of office for the next five years. Companies like Tata Motors, Taj Hotels and Resorts, Bajaj Holdings & Investment, Nadir Godrej-led Godrej Industries and lender "Yes Bank" may well be the Microsoft, P&G or Google of the 21st century. Business Week certainly seems to think so! India has a disproportionate number of the worlds software engineers as is evidenced by the number of Indian nationals who emigrated to Silicon Valley during it's heyday, and who now are back in India leading cutting edge companies. Does India have it's problems? Sure it does, but during this global recession, what country doesn't? Exactly! Many believe that India is right now, where China was 20 years ago with regard to business development. Does this sound like a good prospect for your retirefund? It does to me. You can buy a pure Indian Fund on the NYSE.
Brazil is already, so far ahead of the rest of the world in green energy production that it is entirely self sufficient. Besides owning great reserves of oil, almost 50% of it's energy is derived from locally produced ethanol, and they are, far and away, the world leaders in this technology. In Aerospace, Embraer, is a world leader in the building of regional jets in competition with Canada's Bombardier. Banco do Brasil is not in nearly the jam that many American Banks find themselves in, and other companies such as Brazil Telecoms (telecommunications) and Braskem (chemicals) are now on international investors radar screens. Yes, they also have their problems, but they are a growing phenomenon, and Brazil is also a democracy.You can buy a Brazil Fund currently on the NYSE.
Now if we can just get the fund managers to come up with a basket of great companies from these two emerging powerhouses, you might be able to throw just half a BRIC into your Retirefund, and reap the rewards.
Image via WikipediaI like gold miners this summer!!!
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