You have recently retired, or will retire in the next few years, but you are still heavily invested in the stock markets because that is where the growth has come from for the past 10 or so years.
Maybe you took a beating in 2008, or maybe you didn't start saving/investing until late in your career, and you feel you need a bit more!
Maybe it's time you considered "solidifying" the investments you still have.
Paper profits are great, until a sudden reversal in stock prices occurs. If that happens this year,(and this writer believes it will), then you may be left trying to decide to "stay in" to try and recoup your losses, or cash out with 20-50% less profit. If such an event occurs, it maybe a decade before you recoup those losses.
To this date the Nasdaq has returned, year to date, over 19% "THAT" my friends is a great return on investment! The SP500 has returned almost as much YTD! I sincerely do not believe that retirees or those nearing retirement, "will ever see" returns like this again!!!
If you are over 50 or need the money in your portfolio for retirement, if you cannot afford a downturn in stock prices (or bond prices for that matter see: Bonds) then maybe you should consider the wise advice of the foremost investor in modern history, Mr. Warren Buffett, who famously said:
Remember, "Cash" is also a Position and, at this juncture, it may be the best position!
SirJohn Marks Templeton (November 29, 1912 – July 8, 2008) was an American -born British stock investor, businessman and philanthropist. There is much written about this famous investor, but what you really want to know are how he thought about investing.
He made money as the great depression unwound into the second world war, by investing in, essentially, every penny stock on the NYSE.
He made money in every decade since, averaging 16% per year from 1954 through 1992, with his "Templeton Growth Fund", the grandfather of all Globally diversified mutual funds.
Even after he retired, just prior to the dot com bubble, (when everyone else was saying "it's different this time") he predicted most of those companies would soon go bankrupt, and abruptly made over $80 Million dollars shorting most of them. He said it was "the easiest money I ever made". He is a legend in investment circles and here are his 10 secrets to successful investing:
1. Invest for real returns: "The true objective for any long-term investor is maximum total real return after taxes."
2. Keep an open mind: "Never
adopt permanently any type of asset or any selection method. Try
to stay open minded and skeptical. Long term top results
are achieved only by changing from popular to unpopular the types
of securities you favour and your methods of selection."
3. Never follow the crowd: "If
you buy the same securities as other people, you will have the
same results as other people. It is impossible to produce superior
performance unless you do something different from the majority.
Buying when others are despondently selling and selling when
others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and
pays the greatest reward."
4. Everything changes: "Bear markets have always been temporary. And so have bull markets."
5. Avoid the popular: "When any method for selecting stocks becomes popular, you will need to switch to unpopular methods."
6. Learn from your mistakes: "'This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history."
7. Buy during times of pessimism:
"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on
optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the
best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best
time to sell."
8. Search worldwide:
"To avoid having all your eggs in the wrong basket at the wrong
time, you should diversify. When you search worldwide, you find
more better bargains than when you monitor only one nation. You
also benefit from more safety thanks to diversification."
9. Hunt for value and bargains: "Too
many investors focus on outlook and trend. Therefore, more profit
is made by focusing on value. In the stock market the only way to
get a bargain is to buy what most investors are selling."
10. No-one knows everything: "An investor who has all of the answers doesn't even understand the questions."
Sir John, as well as legendary investor Warren Buffett, have most of their best stock picks when there was blood in the streets, at the point of maximum pessimism.
Basically, if you invest with the crowd, you will get the returns of the crowd. If you can step outside of that box, when everyone else is panicking and selling, you just may be following in the footsteps of the best investors who ever lived.
As we sail into the uncharted waters of massive government debt around the world, one wonders how our children will deal with such debt as we are thrusting upon them by basically living beyond our means for most of the past 40 years. Our homes became our secondary bank, where you could dip into what seemed to be an ever increasing amount of home equity, every year to buy a new car, a boat, a vacation or whatever. No problem! Money was cheap and houses always increased in value. No more!
After a Trillion dollar meltdown in real estate, and trillions more squandered in a derivatives market which no one seems to understand, the major banks of the world stood on the brink in 2008, before governments came to the rescue. Now the question is, who will rescue the governments. Certainly not the insolvent banks who are still hiding Trillions of debt from the derivatives fiasco from their books and from share holders.
Governments, especially democratically elected ones, almost always take the path of least resistance when dealing with debt and deficits. It is, in most western democracies, political suicide to take a stand to say NO MORE, and begin austerity measures that might attempt to mitigate such huge debts. So, they push those debts down the road so to speak, and the road leads directly to our children and grand children, and it tremendously threatens their future well being, in every sense of the word.
In the U.S.A. for instance, the government is now showing a deficit of 15.4 Trillion dollars. This is, by any measure, a massive and mind numbing number, which will never truly be paid off. It is however, only a fraction of what the USA truly owes. When the future promises of medicare, and old age security are calculated into the mix, the number reaches over 202 Trillion dollars. As a stack of $1 bills, that number would reach our moon and back again, several times over. It is truly staggering, and it cannot be paid, unless of course, our governments instigate rapid and possibly hyper inflation.
At this writing, approximately 10,000 baby boomers will retire, every day, for the next 18 years!!!
With Europe on the brink of imploding, its currency soon to be an after thought, and the U.S. dollar (the usual go-to safe haven) building up to its own massive implosion, where could a lone investor turn for some sort of comfort! Well, where people have turned for currency comfort for the past four thousand years. To gold and silver, that's where!
In 1964 one gallon of gas cost approximately 25c in U.S. currency. Today, that same 1964 quarter will buy you even more gas than it did then. There is only one reason and that is the silver content of that coin. That was the last year those coins contained 90% silver content. (today the melt value of that quarter is about $7) Over the next few years the content was reduced and eventually completely eliminated from coins.
Last year, the Chinese government began encouraging its citizens to add physical gold to their savings. For the past three years China has been buying more and more gold for its foreign currency reserves in lieu of American dollars (U.S. government debt, of which China still holds over $1 Trillion.)
You will hear great American investors like the venerable Warren Buffett chide that gold is a worthless investment that does nothing as you stand around guarding it. It is now a provable fact that, if Mr. Buffett could have sold all of his shares in Berkshire Hathaway stock in 2002 and just bought gold, he would now be 500% richer. How is that for holding value!!!
Today there are vested interests who will do whatever it takes to bring down the price of gold and silver, as their position in the financial world depends on it. Institutions like central banks and large banks such as J.P. Morgan, who have probably the largest silver short in history at present. Don't be fooled or afraid of these dealings. No one can hold back a river with a bucket brigade for very long. The flood is coming, bet on it!!
If you do not have physical gold and silver in your savings plan, then at least consider these thoughts. It may be the only way you will be able to leave value to your grand children as their generation is saddled with the most massive debt the world has ever witnessed.
Image by Getty Images via @daylifeI know that, when everyone starts to panic, most investors see the U.S. dollar as a safe haven. This week investors are piling into U.S. Treasuries as they have in the past during past times of fear and uncertainty. The problems in Europe have shaken confidence and the market plumeted yesterday on those fears. It would appear that, what the market has not done, is price in any hopeful sign that the European Union might actually come up with a plan similiar to the U.S. T.A.R.P. plan, which, in hindsight, was very positive for U.S. stocks, and which did not lose any money for taxpayers in the long run. If the E.U. comes up with such a plan in the near term, there could be a dramatic pop in markets that are currently ruled by fear. There seems to be no pricing in of any good news that may eminate from Europe in the coming week(s).
In the mean time, the best "safe haven" of recent years, gold bullion, and by proxy, gold miners, have taken a beating this week. They have taken a beating only if you consider the price of gold over the course of the past month where bullion prices spiked as high as $1900. Compared to the rest of 2011, gold is still up a healthy 20% or more. It is only back to mid July prices. That, my friends, is a healthy pullback, not This is not 2008 all over again. The fear is overblown. It may well be 2009 all over again as equities test those "generational lows" once again. I know this may be a contrary view, when compared with many market followers, but if I am right, this is the time to take the advice of Warren Buffett who famously said "buy when all others are fearful".
I am a buyer right now. A buyer of select equities in tech and pharma. A buyer of gold miners. A buyer of top Lithium miners. A buyer of select Canadian banks. If things go lower, I will buy more. Today I doubled down on small and mid tier gold miners like San Gold, and Brigus Gold. I even bought speculative stocks like TNR Gold and Nautilus Minerals. I bought more Talison Lithium. I bought more Rodinia Lithium.
I like Cenovus Energy and Suncor in the oil sector, TD Bank, RBC and BMO in banking.
I even like Manulife Financial as they are trading at an all time low this week. I like solid Techs like Intel, Microsoft, Apple and Google. I am watching HP since they announced thier new CEO today, Meg Whitman. I think there are great buys out there, and I am taking advantage of the irrational fear as everyone runs to the not so safe haven of the U.S. dollar.
I do not like the prospects for the American dollar, the Euro or, for that matter, most fiat currencies. Gold is bought and sold by central banks around the world, and it would not surprise me to hear in the coming weeks that countries like Italy have sold some of their gold stocks to pay down debt. Certainly that would account for the current weakness in bullion prices, which will rebound as fiat currencies, including the USD once again, lose favor with investors.
No one has a crystal ball, least of all this writer. However, it is those investors who seize the moment, who most often come out ahead of the herd. I hope you are one of those.
Is America on a road to ruin? Financially? Politically? Is the "great experiment" coming to an end? Could it's decline have been predicted by studying the rise and fall of all great empires? Charlie Munger seems to think so. One of the scions of the most successful investment company in history, Berkshire-Hathaway is saying exactly that in a recent article at Slate.com.
Charlie lays out an interesting, and I might add, a very compelling argument for the demise of the American Empire, beginning as early as 2012. In contrast to his business partner, the venerable "Oracle of Omaha", Warren Buffett, an eternal optimist, Munger maintains that it is "blind optimism" that will be America's final undoing.
As the "Casino gambling" mentality of Wall Street investment banks takes hold more and more in American society, and average investors and governments are persuaded to "let it ride" instead of reining in the massive bets on paper investments like credit default swaps and other murky derivatives, that "blind optimism" will be our undoing, according to Munger. The U.S. government is divided as never before. The right wing will do "whatever it takes" to undo the Obama Presidency as is evidenced by the upshot "Tea Party" the party of "no"! Republicans don't seem to be interested in coming to agreement on anything proposed by this administration, preferring to "just say no" instead of offering alternatives and meeting in the middle to obtain resolution, whether it is the financial crisis, health care, energy or almost any decision of significance. The democrats are no better, preferring to argue within their own caucus and dither on passing any legislation that moves even a little bit, away from their individual pet position of the day.
Munger maintains that, among other developments, this dithering and procrastination will allow the casino mentality to continue in financial circles, as the army of Wall Street lobbyists continues it's onslaught in Washington to convince Government of the status quo, restrict any and all new regulations, and just "let-it-ride!
As they say in Omaha, Mrs. Munger didn't raise no fool! Buffets optimism aside, Mungers argument should not be dismissed out of hand. It is worth reading and considering, especially as you lay out your investment horizon in the coming years.
Some excerpts from the blunt Mr. Munger on Investment Banks:
“This is an enormously influential group of people, and 90% of that influence is being spent to gain powers and practices that the world would be better off without,It will be very hard to accomplish the kind of surgery that would be desirable for the wider civilization.”
"We need to remove from the investment banking and the commercial banking industries a lot of the practices and prerogatives that they have so lovingly possessed,”If they are too big to fail, they are too big to be allowed to be as gamey and venal as they’ve been -- and as stupid as they’ve been.”
This writer, and many others, have been warning you about some of the problems for years. but now you can hear it from one of the most prolific investors of all time, Charlie Munger!
PS: Just to clarify, I don't agree with Charlie. History has taught us that America can never be counted out. It will rebound. It's just a matter when.
In our previous article : The argument for Gold, we first updated you on Gold's value in this market, and the hidden gem that is Apollo Gold, and it's Black Fox and Grey Fox Mines near Timmons Ontario. The story just got a little more interesting today!
Apollo Gold announced today, the assay results of 7 holes (out of 29 drilled) during it's drilling program in August at it's Grey Fox site and those results are excellent! We are still awaiting the results of the other 21 holes which should be released near the end of October.
This reinforces my reasoning for increasing my holdings through Sept and Oct and I believe there is more good news to come. Gold Analysts from The Gold Report had this company at a strong buy before the drilling at "Grey Fox" even began, with a minimum target price between $1 and $2.79 (it is currently trading at .58) Those estimates were solely based on Apollo's new production at it's "Black Fox" Mine (approx 40,000 oz) since June and did not even consider the drilling at Grey Fox nor Apollo's recent acquisition of the 3.5 km "Pike River" property which straddles these two diamonds in the rough since it started drilling core at Grey Fox.
I expect those estimates to be greatly revised upwards over the next few months and into the 2010 Q1 reports. Here are those initial Assay results from Apollo Gold.
PS: I would like to address a comment about gold investments by the venerable oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett who said: " Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their heads"
Gold has, in fact, great utility! Gold is the best conductor of electricity on the planet. If it were not for the high price (and high utility value) every household would have gold electrical wires instead of copper. Every electrician out there knows this simple fact.
Gold is used in Medicine, Dentistry, Industry, aeronautics, space flight, electronics, computers and food production not to mention the massive international jewelry trade and as a hedge against devaluing currencies.
Currently, The Chinese Government is buying gold, and telling it's citizens to do the same. The Hong Kong government is actually in the process of moving it's gold reserves from London Banks, to it's own territory. In places as far flung as Istanbul Turkey, and Indonesia, people are buying up gold as a store of value against what the world perceives as a quickly weakening U.S. dollar. Gold has a 6,000-year history of preserving value against fiat currencies like the greenback.
Having regard to the above, I believe that, 2,000 oz gold is the "low end" of what is coming in 2010 and I believe that Apollo Gold is severely undervalued.
Update Oct 23rd - Apollo Gold signed an agreement with Elkhorn minerals to sell it's interest in the Montana Tunnels for $9 Million. This is another clear indication that Apollo Gold is clearing it's slate to concentrate on it's Grey Fox and Black Fox properties near Timmons Ontario which may be the largest pure gold discovery in the past 30 years.
Analyst Reports on Apollo Gold:(Which don't include the Grey Fox Drill Results)
1. . . .We continue to recommend the shares of Apollo Gold Corp. with a SECTOR OUTPERFORM rating." -KERRY SMITH, HAYWOOD SECURITIES (10/16/09)
2. "We have left our assumptions for 2010 unchanged, resulting in no effect on our $1.00 target price and SECTOR OUTPERFORM rating" for Apollo Gold.
--TARA HASSAN, M PARTNERS (09/30/09)
3..."Apollo Gold is very much a strong buy, an aggressive buy".
If you think that the housing crisis in the United States is over, you're not paying attention. The inventory of unsold houses is over 1.5 million. Over 40% of home owners will be "under water" by 2011 (meaning their mortgage will be more than the value of their home)
Commercial buildings, office buildings, Malls and the like, are the lifeblood of the REIT market. Even before the advent of REITs, investing in commercial real estate brought investors and speculators fortunes. Mostly those investors were already rich or well to do because the average retail investor could not afford to be in this market. REIT's changed all that as they began to trade on the markets much like stocks. During the great depression, a number of distraught investors actually jumped from the same buildings they had invested in. Hopefully that won't happen next year, at least, not to you.
If you are invested in a REIT or similar commercial real estate company, there are some things you need to understand, and you need that information now, before things start to unravel even more than they did earlier this year. Yes, I know that, many pundits are very bullish on this market but as Warren Buffett has put it, "you pay a high price for a cheery consensus".
Now, don't take just my word, or anyone's word for it. Look around you! The last time you went to a mall, how many stores were closed, or closing? Indeed, how many malls are still surviving? Over 200 malls in the United States were abandoned this year alone. Now think back to the last few times you went into an office tower in your city for an appointment. Did you notice a number of empty offices or companies vacating the premises? As these properties financing comes due, where are they going to find new financing?
The banks have had a good run this summer. I know. I just sold much of my bank stock today. (when you have a good run you should not fall in love with the stock you own, even if it is a bank with strong earnings. In this case, TD). Banks, particularly those in the U.S., would be the "second" domino to fall if the commercial real estate crashes. It could even be a "death blow" for some banks as their exposure is over $2 Trillion dollars to the sector which could lose as much as $1 Trillion in value.
REITs trying to re-finance properties this fall and early next year, will run into a wall. No one will want to lend them the billions required to re-finance their operations, especially banks that have been propped up by government bailouts. This does not include the 80 banks that have failed this year, or the 200-500 expected to fail in the next 12 months. Yes, that many, and those are the conservative estimates. Some analysts believe the number is closer to 1,000. Even after all that has happened over the last 18 months, the banks are still holding their cash close. However, if your REIT has solid management, is flush with cash and is keeping their powder dry waiting for the downturn, you might wish to hold on to your shares. Only the strong will feast on the many carcasses that will be strewn across the landscape.
Trust has left this market place. It will leave behind it's offspring, pain and loss!
Update: Sept 10th 2009 from New York Times. Corus Bancshares - First domino to fall.
The United States dollar is going down! The U.S. Government will be over 13 $Trillion in the hole by the end of this year. Unless something drastic is done to reduce the slide, by 2015 it will be 23 $Trillion in the hole. This summer rally , (some green shoots aside) was predicated on the back of a sinking u.s. dollar . Many American investors are so busy getting angry and waiving the flag to prop up King Dollar , that they are blinded to one of the best investment plays this year and probably through 2010.
Smart Canadians are ignoring the whining from their own Governments and businesses about a high Canadian dollar being bad for exports and they are taking advantage of a situation that Ottawa doesn't want to acknowledge. The Canadian buck will outstrip the U.S. buck over the next year. So how can you play this for the betterment of your Retirefund?
Back in January, when the Canada buck was trading for around .77 cents U.S. I traded my u.s. dollars into Canadian dollars. I have gained about 20% with this simple strategy, however there is another good market strategy that I, and many others, are making some money with. Commodities such as oil, gold, natural gas, are denominated in U.S. dollars. If you bought some of these commodities, with your Canadian dollars, back in March, you have no doubt made good money.
Now, many Americans, whose pride (and pocketbooks) have taken a big hit during this dramatic downturn in their economy, are championing the return of King Dollar. Can't blame them. If your house is losing value, and your dollar is losing value, and the Gluttons of Wall Street have swallowed a good portion of your retirement funds, you are definitely in jam. However, average Americans are once again being led down the garden path into believing their dollar will go higher over the next few years. Feeding those false hopes, every time the dollar goes up a bit (as it did on Monday) the talking bull heads on CNBC (Kudlow, Kneale etc) waive the flag and declare the return of King dollar. I believe they couldn't be more wrong.
In fact, I am so convinced of this that, when I see a rise in the U.S. dollar, and a corresponding drop in our commodities market, I see it as a great buying opportunity for those commodities, especially if you are paying for your shares in Canadian dollars. As I have pointed out before, we have had the best balance sheet of the G20 for the past 8 years (We've been in the black until the crisis hit this year) Our banks have stayed conservative, avoiding the toxic Derivatives debacle and have entered this summer rally strong. We have the second largest deposits of oil and natural gas in the world, the largest deposits of potash, lumber, gypsum, seafood, nickel, uranium and arguably, diamonds. We own 20% of the worlds entire supply of fresh water, with only .03% of it's population. We own the largest claim to the arctic, which is suspected to harbor 25% of the total world's oil supply, and finally, the largest consumer on the planet, is right next door.
Don't get me wrong though. The Canadian dollar and commodities market is by no means the only place with good value these days. They will go sideways for the next month or so, but by the end of the year the Loonie will approach parity. The BRIC countries , or at least two of them, are good investments. (Except China for the rest of this year) The Australian dollar, who's commodities feed into the Chinese economic realm may also be a good bet. We have some excellent, small Canadian companies that are basically overlooked south of the border, until they dominate a market (RIM). They are essentially, under the radar, so to speak. Find them, research them thoroughly, ensure they have good management, good science and technology , and then don't be afraid to invest. You could hit the RIM of 2010-2011!
If you are American, you should be in the stock market right now. Having cash, or cash equivalents sitting on the sidelines for any length of time is a recipe for losses, period! Sadly, the gluttons of wall street are the ones who will actually benefit from the dollar crisis they have caused. Stock Markets go up as currency devalues. It is actually that simple.
The Canadian Government and Canadian manufacturing don't want a strong Canada buck, but they won't have any choice in the matter. It is time our manufacturing and export companies grow because of innovation instead of a weak currency. Those days are gone.
A Canadian buck with a 5-8% premium over the U.S. dollar (a la the 1950's and 60's), is a Loonie I can live with. All of our retirement funds, and our travel budgets, have gone up over 20% this year because of it. The Loonie now buys 20% more than it did 6 months ago. It will go higher still. Here is a quote from Warren Buffett from his "The Greenback Effect"!
"The world "properly" worries about greenhouse emissions causing global warming", says Buffett. "Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar's destiny lies with Congress."
There are investors and there are traders. Traders trade! Investors invest! However, there is one thing they have in common. None of them can "time the market". Truly, if they could time the market, many of the talking heads on CNBC would have made billions on last years crash, or this springs bounce, instead of keeping their jobs trying to sell us on the benefits of the "hot stock of the day".
For the average Joe or Jill, a good practice is to "Invest for the long term" in increments using dollar cost averaging (ie: have your investment money put into your favorite mutual fund every paycheck) so that you can level out the gyrations in the market. If you are a little bolder and want to do some of your own homework, then Invest in individual stocks of solid companies with great products, market niches and good management
No one is right all the time! Not even the investment greats like Warren Buffett or George Soros. If they make big mistakes, and they do, then how many more mistakes are made by the coffee fueled, adrenaline pumped, talking heads on CNBC (fast money, Cramer, Kudlow, Kneale etc) Just because you took their advice and got lucky once, doesn't mean they are going to be right next time. They make mistakes, just like you do. Just like I do. Just like we all do.
It is important to do your own homework when investing. If you don't feel you have the time or expertise and you just want to invest in mutual funds, then at least do enough homework to pick a good manager. Investing in mutual funds is essentially investing in good management. 60% of fund managers today "Do not beat the Index". In other words, if you just invested in a basic index fund, with a lower fee base (because it is tied to the Index of the market you are investing in) on average, you will beat 60% of the mutual fund managers out there who get fat fees, for their so called expertise.
Nobody sees a bull market in our near future right now, but remember this. Bull markets always climb a "wall of worry". Bull markets are never identified until most of the profits are already made. Bull markets love inflation. A weak currency (read u.s. dollar) always increases inflation. With the current trend to deflation, markets in turmoil, with investors sitting on the side lines and the Chicken Little's clucking that the "sky is falling", Now may be a great time for contrary investors to take the opposite view and invest in a basic Index fund that costs less than 1% in fees. Or maybe not!
You can always keep your dollars on the sidelines, where they are sure to lose value over time. You could invest in mutual funds administered by a good manager who's track record shows a consistant return better than the Index.
Or, you could act on the next hot tip from one of the talking heads on CNBC. After all, "even a broken clock is right twice per day"!
Businessweek recently asked on it's blog if investing long term in the stock market is still a good strategy for your retirefund, or if a short term "trading" system might be more beneficial. Do you really need to ask this question?
Let's answer that with two more questions shall we! How many of you timed last years market plunge? How many of you "timed" this springs bounce? I thought so! If you didn't time either of these obvious opportunities, then why would you even consider trading short term? This is not to say that you shouldn't sell stocks. That is how you book real profit. However, if you buy a classic car at an auction, you don't sell it at the same auction. You bought it because it accumulates value, and that takes time.
Long term strategic investing in the stock market has returned the most value to investors than any other store of value over the past 100 years. It will continue to do so over the next 100 years. Why? To draw a simple analogy, the stock market for investors, is what the ocean is to sailors. If it empties, it won't matter what ship you have your family in because every boat will be on dry land. In investment terms, no other investment will stay afloat if the market is gone.
That is why you hear terms such as "a rising tide floats all boats" from investment gurus. It is the same analogy used when Warren Buffett says " when the tide goes out, you can see who has been swimming naked"!
Now let's draw another simple analogy for "today's market"! Currently the tide is very low and most boats are aground. If you pick the sturdiest, fastest boats from the ones that are currently stuck on the sandbars, you will definitely sail away and win the race when the tide comes in, and make no mistake. It will come in. It always does!
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