Showing posts with label Wall Street. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wall Street. Show all posts

Monday, July 26, 2010

Jim Cramer admits to manipulating stock prices when he was a fund manager.

Jim CramerImage by talkradionews via Flickr
When I was a policeman, I always felt relief when a perpetrator finally admitted to his wrong doing. It was a corroboration of the evidence that I already had, coming from the person who did the dirty deed.

Humans have an innate yearning to "come clean" on their sins, and that is the reason why so many people actually admit the wrong doing.  It gives them a sense of relief not unlike the relief felt by Catholics when confessing their sins to a priest, and then doing penance for their sins. The relief is instant.

However, when such a confession happens in a simple conversation between an interviewer and a guest on T.V., it sometimes goes either unnoticed, or unappreciated, by the people listening, as their interest did not, at first, lie with hearing a "confession"! It essentially gets lost in the context of the greater interview.

In the interview in question, however, one would have to fall asleep to overlook the confession of an otherwise honest man who often "says it like it is".  Jim Cramer of "Mad Money" fame on CNBC did exactly this in an interview which has been posted online.

To listen to that "confession" on YouTube (see Jim Cramer admits ) is to understand that the markets today, are susceptible to a whole range of manipulations, from Central Banks, to fund managers to the glorified salesmen, masquerading as investment advisers, who are paid huge sums by Wall Street firms to corral investors into believing in the "integrity" of those firms.

Jim is merely an honest man who admits to some "otherwise legal" manipulations of stocks for the benefit of his fund and his clients. However, if you multiply by the hundreds of otherwise honest fund managers doing similar manipulations on behalf of their funds and clients, by the number of out and out con men such as Bernie Madoff, who have entered the great Casino, through the front door of Business Schools, contacts and friendships, it is little wonder that the average Joe has been running for the exits in the past few years.

Folks, as comedian George Carlin once proclaimed, "Wall Street is a big club, and your not in it"!


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Thursday, March 18, 2010

And the number of the beast was 666!
(Level of the S & P on March 9th 2009!)

Bull market dominated by a Child

Is that a wicked smile on the beast, as almost every major stock in this market advances onward and upward? Are the innocent climbing back on board? What is driving the sentiment of investors, in this market which has risen 80% since that March low, to new highs for the past 8 days. Is it a true bull market, or a beast that will throw the innocent into a wall of hurt, and cause financial damage around the world and countries to turn on each other?

After all, apocalyptic predictions of the world ending are said to point to the year 2012! Is Nouriel Roubini an economist or a prophet in the mold of Nostradamus or even St John the Apostle (who wrote the book of revelation) Did Nostradamus and St John, along with the ancient Mayans receive a direction from God that points to 2012 as "the year of destruction"? Did Dr. Roubini receive the same message two centuries later?

Is Jim Cramer one of the false prophets foretold by St John? Is his recent prophecy of a rising bull market helping to cause a wild party of unbridled optimism when the world, according to Prophet, Roubini, is about to go to hell in a hand basket? Hell, even Charlie Munger of Berkshire-Hathaway thinks that 2012 is the year of doom. (see- Charlie Munger). His partner, the venerable Warren Buffet remains an eternal optimist, buying a Chinese car company and an American Railroad in the past year. Others are warning of a future of Hyper Inflation.

I certainly don't have all the answers, but these guys believe they do. However with sentiment so split between the giddy bull soothsayers and the doom and gloom naysayers, how can we mere mortals find our way through the investment jungle that has become today's market. Well, in point of fact, it has always been a jungle and experience teaches that when people are in turmoil, especially investors, opportunities usually abound. The problem is, how do you find such opportunities, when your Retirefund won't allow you to invest in Berkshire-Hathaway.

In previous articles I have made the argument for gold. I have told you about the coming Lithium boom. I have mentioned hidden gems in Mobile Web stocks, and (besides Lithium) I have given you my ideas on green energy stocks and new clean technologies that are not quite on the radar of the big dogs just yet.

I have told you to invest in great companies like TD Bank and Encana, over the long term. I have warned you about the gluttons of Wall Street, and I have tried to steer you away from the leeches in the Managed mutual fund industry. I even advised you twice, last year and this year, to hold on to your Loonies!

More moderate voices can be heard through the din of disaster scenarios and scare mongering. One of those is Peter Bisson, a director of McKinsey and Co, of Stamford, Connecticut. In a recent interview with the Globe and Mail, titled, a great re-balancing of economic power, he makes some interesting points about the current markets. Some of his thoughts:

"The financial crisis is just a little earthquake in a long process of fundamental economic realignment. !"

"globalization is basically a good thing. It has lifted huge numbers of people out of poverty"

"For the first time in hundreds of years, there will be more growth in emerging markets than in developed markets. We are doubling the size of the global middle class. "

"the work force in a lot of the West still fits a 20th century economy. In the U.S., there is only 3 per cent unemployment in the most highly educated groups, but 30 per cent unemployment in the bottom 10 per cent of education. We are drifting toward this chronically unemployed group because skill sets don't match."

"Canada is a big beneficiary. This huge [emerging markets] urbanization and this doubling of the world's middle class drives very significant real increases in resource demand of pretty much all types." (and Canada is a supplier of many of those resources)!

"Inequality between nations is evening out; inequality within nations is getting worse. That is politically volatile, and you can't escape that reality."

And finally:

"The risk in the system today is more on the individual. On average each year, 15 per cent of U.S. households can now expect their incomes to fall as much as 50 per cent. That's a third higher than in the 1970s."

I encourage you to read the entire interview at: GlobeandMail.com



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Thursday, March 11, 2010

Is hyper Inflation in Americas future?

I had an uncle (who married my father's sister) who lived in Germany prior to the outbreak of World War 2. He once told me that, when he was a boy, in the 1920's, when Germany was held accountable for the debt of the first world war, he saw people actually take wheel barrows full of cash (Deutche marks) to the grocery store to get food. It was not unlike the boy pictured here, in modern day Zimbabwe. That was the effect of hyper inflation. The rise of Adolph Hitler was one of the results.

I just read a great article by Ron Hera at SeekingAlpha.com In that article Hera lays out, in much detail, why, he believes, hyper Inflation is coming to America. It is an article that deserves to be read by every investor, American or not, who has money in today's markets. It should especially be read by those who are hoarding their cash, as they are the most likely to face huge losses in the coming years.

I touched on this subject in previous articles including:

Dilly Dollar Daze in the USA
IMF selling more gold
America on the road to ruin
Hold on to your Loonies
Capitalism, Greed and the Faustian bargain of more liquidity
and finally:
The Argument for Gold

However Ron Hera, founder of Hera Research, LLC, and the principal author of the Hera Research Monthly newsletter holds a master's degree from Stanford University and is a member of Mensa and of the Ludwig von Mises Institute. A much smarter guy than this writer, he lays out in a very methodical, and convincing way, why hyper inflation is in America's future, and it is not very far away. Some excerpts:

"Deflation causes debt default and that harms lenders. Governments have no mechanism to tax gains in the value of currency so monetary policy always errs on the side of inflation.
The result is a long term devaluation of the currency" (in this case the usd).

A case in point, Hera points out that "Since the inception of the Central Bank in 1913, the U.S. dollar has lost 95% of it's value"

Some more excerpts from Mr. Hera's article:

Patterns of Hyperinflation

"From the perspective of sovereign debt, the commonly understood process of hyperinflation is that if a government responds to declining foreign appetite for its debt with monetization (or in a historical context direct currency debasement) rather than immediate budget cuts, its currency loses value, at first in proportion to the dilution of the money supply and then more quickly as foreign bond holders and the nation’s own citizens seek shelter from inflation in other asset classes.

The cost of the government’s future obligations then tends to rise in nominal terms, creating an apparent need for larger bond issues while bond yields rise, i.e., the cost of borrowing increases since monetization signals greater risk to investors. Exacerbating the problem, tax receipts tend to lag behind as domestic price inflation sets in.

Further monetization is the path of least resistance. Although officials certainly believe that monetization is only a temporary measure both confidence in and the credibility of the government fail. Insolvency is eventually recognized as a reality and the nation’s currency then collapses entirely."


Crisis of Credibility

"A gradual decline in the value of a currency is generally accepted by consumers and businesses because it has little immediate impact and can have short-term benefits, such as making money more accessible and stimulating economic activity and growth.

However, when debt increases disproportionately, a deflationary bust is inevitable and if it is postponed by further credit expansion systemic instability results."

In 1949 Ludwig von Mises pointed out in Human Action (Chapter XX, section 8) that “there is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion."

The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

Among other things, excessive monetary inflation means that the US dollar cannot function as a store of value. Mounting evidence points to systemic instability, a lower US dollar and ultimately to a hyper inflationary outcome"

"Seven US states are worse off than the financially troubled European nations of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain resulting in warnings of a US credit rating downgrade possibly indicating an eventual sovereign default."

In an article last year, I pointed out that U.S. Banks were holding financial Derivatives such as CDSs in the Trillions of dollars, and that they were not counted on their books. In that article I speculated that the amount of Financial Derivatives might add up to more tha 3 times the world GDP. I was obviously wrong. Here is a real eye popping statistic that Hera lays out:

"The largest US Banks remain the largest holders of financial derivatives, e.g., credit default swaps (CDSs), which suggests that they may hold liabilities far in excess of amounts that can be paid or that can be bailed out if significant losses occur. The CDS market, which is the single largest class of financial derivatives, represents over $600 trillion dollars, a roughly 10x multiple of world GDP."


Now that, my friends, is a truly scary number! No wonder Warren Buffet called these "Financial instruments of mass destruction". He wasn't kidding or even exaggerating.


Finally, Mr. Hera points out obvious warning signs for his hypothesis:

"Perhaps the most important indicator of impending hyperinflation is whether the statements of a government or of its central bank, e.g., with respect to the government’s budget or the central bank’s balance sheet, are evidence based or ideological. If they are not evidence based, the credibility of the government or central bank, and its currency, will weaken and eventually fail.

Currently, the largest buyer of U.S. government debt is it's own Central Bank. If a government so lacks credibility that it cannot issue bonds because there are no buyers other than its own central bank, the value of its currency declines faster than money is printed to cover its obligations.

When the balance sheets of US banks are maintained by suspending accounting rules and when banks hold financial derivatives liabilities greater than world GDP, both the stability and credibility of the banks is questionable.

When private financial losses and toxic financial assets are transferred to taxpayers while profits and bonuses abound on Wall Street thanks to accounting rule changes in the midst of the worst economic contraction since the Great Depression, the credibility and competency of the US Treasury and Congress, with respect to the finances of the nation, is questionable.

When the US Federal Reserve defies the US Congress, resists independent auditing, engages in ongoing QE and is the lender of last resort for banks that under normal conditions would be insolvent, its credibility is questionable. When the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, who failed to detect the largest asset price bubble in the history of the world and who has been consistently wrong in his assessment of the US economy is reappointed following the worst financial and economic disaster in generations, both his credibility and that of the Obama administration are questionable.

The plethora of red flags spewing from Wall Street, from the Federal Reserve and from the federal government point to a breakdown of de jure value that is already in progress, thus to a hyperinflationary outcome for the US dollar."

I encourage you to read the entire article at: Seeking Alpha.

Here's another, in depth view.


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Monday, March 1, 2010

America - on the road to ruin? Charlie Munger of Berkshire-Hathaway thinks it is!

Berkshire Hathaway 2009Image by TEDizen via Flickr

Is America on a road to ruin? Financially? Politically? Is the "great experiment" coming to an end? Could it's decline have been predicted by studying the rise and fall of all great empires? Charlie Munger seems to think so. One of the scions of the most successful investment company in history, Berkshire-Hathaway is saying exactly that in a recent article at Slate.com.

Charlie lays out an interesting, and I might add, a very compelling argument for the demise of the American Empire, beginning as early as 2012. In contrast to his business partner, the venerable "Oracle of Omaha", Warren Buffett, an eternal optimist, Munger maintains that it is "blind optimism" that will be America's final undoing.

As the "Casino gambling" mentality of Wall Street investment banks takes hold more and more in American society, and average investors and governments are persuaded to "let it ride" instead of reining in the massive bets on paper investments like credit default swaps and other murky derivatives, that "blind optimism" will be our undoing, according to Munger. The U.S. government is divided as never before. The right wing will do "whatever it takes" to undo the Obama Presidency as is evidenced by the upshot "Tea Party" the party of "no"! Republicans don't seem to be interested in coming to agreement on anything proposed by this administration, preferring to "just say no" instead of offering alternatives and meeting in the middle to obtain resolution, whether it is the financial crisis, health care, energy or almost any decision of significance. The democrats are no better, preferring to argue within their own caucus and dither on passing any legislation that moves even a little bit, away from their individual pet position of the day.

Munger maintains that, among other developments, this dithering and procrastination will allow the casino mentality to continue in financial circles, as the army of Wall Street lobbyists continues it's onslaught in Washington to convince Government of the status quo, restrict any and all new regulations, and just "let-it-ride!

As they say in Omaha, Mrs. Munger didn't raise no fool! Buffets optimism aside, Mungers argument should not be dismissed out of hand. It is worth reading and considering, especially as you lay out your investment horizon in the coming years.

Some excerpts from the blunt Mr. Munger on Investment Banks:

“This is an enormously influential group of people, and 90% of that influence is being spent to gain powers and practices that the world would be better off without,It will be very hard to accomplish the kind of surgery that would be desirable for the wider civilization.”

"We need to remove from the investment banking and the commercial banking industries a lot of the practices and prerogatives that they have so lovingly possessed,” If they are too big to fail, they are too big to be allowed to be as gamey and venal as they’ve been -- and as stupid as they’ve been.”

This writer, and many others, have been warning you about some of the problems for years. but now you can hear it from one of the most prolific investors of all time, Charlie Munger!

Charlie Munger: Basically, it's all over!

PS: Just to clarify, I don't agree with Charlie. History has taught us that America can never be counted out. It will rebound. It's just a matter when.

Related Articles:

Capitalism, Greed and the Faustian bargain of more liquidity!

An argument for Gold

Vultures of Wall Street

Pigs at the Trough




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Monday, February 1, 2010

Capitalism, greed, and the faustian bargain of more liquidity

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone" John Maynard Keynes

"The best way to destroy the Capitalist system is to debauch the currency" Vladimir Lenin

As more Billionaires are made, and the current ones increase their wealth in leaps and bounds, in the same year that workers are tremendously punished, and stand to lose their futures, one wonders if Capitalism itself isn't the third system to meet it's fate after National Socialism (Nazism) and Communism. Today, the pure Capitalist system is shown wanting, as never before. Let's call it "Kudlow Capitalism" after CNBC's very outspoken, cheer leader, of the billionaire club, Larry Kudlow. You know, the TV host who never allows anyone with a different slant on Capitalism to talk more than 20 seconds without either cutting them off or talking over their voices. The same guy that is now blaming President Obama for all the troubles, along with Fox news, who now resemble the Nazi propaganda machine of the 1930's

When
"investment banks" hoard tankers full of oil offshore, awaiting a rise in oil prices, so as to pounce on the unsuspecting consumer like a cougar, is that good for the rest of the economy? Remember, this is not an oil company that needs storage space for a glut on the market, but an "investment bank"! Should they be allowed to speculate on such a large scale, in such a necessary commodity? Oil speculation is only one example of the "fingers in the cookie jar" mentality of big investment banks like JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. As I've said before, if the price of oil is $70, you can probably chock up $25 of that price to these types of giant, market moving, speculators. (That's about 36% of the cost of filling up your cars gas tank). No wonder GS has come to be labeled a "Giant vampire squid" smothering the face of society with their tentacles following the smell of money into every orifice.

Several years ago, GS collected a $300,000,000 fee to help the country of Greece essentially fudge the numbers of their national debt. (to allow the lying Greek government to get into the Euro zone by skirting the necessity to disclose it's total debt ratio) Now their bets against that same debt stand to make them even more money. Essentially they gave Greece a reason to burn the house down, then bought insurance against the fire. Is this fraud or just good money management. You decide if they deserve the title of Vultures of Wall Street! (See Bank Bets - New York Times )

Investors in the Euro have already decided, by dumping their Euro's. Greece may yet get bailed out by it's Euro partners, but don't count on it. Why should hard working, prudent Germans, who have recently been told they cannot collect old age security pensions until after age 67, suddenly feel the urge to bail out free spending and freeloading Greeks, who can retire at 60. With Spain Portugal and Italy waiting in the wings for their own rescue, why would Germany and France (who have troubles of their own) even consider it. Greece should be ejected from the Euro zone unless or until they get their sick fiscal house in order, and their bulging debt under some sort of control. Civil unrest will result.

Speaking about sick fiscal policies and massive debt, The United States budget forecasts a $1.7 Trillion dollar debt for this year, bringing total debt to around $14T (depending on which number are crunched) by year end. If America continues to pump liquidity into the system, the storm clouds of 2008 will begin to pail in comparison with those forming over 2010 and beyond. The U.S. Government is now the sole backer of mortgages in the Country through it's control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. If they nationalized those two entities right now, that would add over $5 Trillion to the U.S. Debt book. Add to that the fact that China is owed a big chunk of the United States debt at a time when a trade war with the Country looms large and those storm clouds get darker still. China holds $2 Trillion in their FE account, (including $800 Billion in U.S. debt) has been storing up massive amounts of commodities, is ahead in the production of green energy initiatives and has more than three times the population, so who is best suited to withstand a protracted trade war? Couple all of this with the continuing "gaming of the U.S. system" by the vultures of Wall Street, and the picture for prosperity in the Good Ole U.S. of A is dimming daily.

Weighing in on the "Faustian bargain" of Keynesian economic theory this week was none other than Conrad Black, in a letter to his old Alma Mater, the National Post (Almost surely written from his jail cell). The audacity of an old Bay Street fraudster, writing about the futility of propping up markets with so much liquidity, while other, bigger frauds are being precipitated upon an unsuspecting public purse, by much bigger "Wall Street" fish, exactly because of the liquidity infusion, was a little comical.

Whether the infusion of money comes from taxpayers (TARP and it's ilk) or from common shareholders, (as in Conrad Blacks case) there is always a vampire squid swimming nearby to latch on and leach every bit of money it can settle it's tentacles upon. Why does the general public always seem surprised when Wall Street Vultures pay out to their executives, over $100 Billion in bonuses for one year of speculation, while the American taxpayer is given a bill that neither they, their children or their grandchildren will be able to pay.

It is said that, "power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely". Since the early 1970's we've been fed the mantra" greed is good" and "free markets can regulate themselves" (greed good - regulation bad - ie: Larry Kudlow and company) and that Government should just get out of the way and let markets regulate themselves. We are now reaping the painful rewards of that mindset. The vultures of Wall Street have proven that "Greed is corrupt, and absolute greed is corruption absolute"! The opposite of greed is not thrift. It is generosity. Generosity is a word completely lost on Wall Street. Vultures aren't generous, indeed they don't really care who they feed upon, but only that they feed.

The crooks settled in and took over the store so long ago that they have convinced the police that they are actually the owners. Only when the real owners return and demand change, will real change occur, but don't hold your breath. Every time that notion takes shape, the crooks rally the troops in Washington and the uninitiated across America, then threaten to close the great Casino, and everyone goes away until it re stocks and re-opens for business again.

Maybe it's time to tear down the Casino and start again!


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Saturday, January 23, 2010

Obama burned by big bank bonuses!

Barack Obama speaking at a campaign rally in A...Image via Wikipedia

There once was a guy named Obama,
who caused quite a financial drama,
when he scolded the banks, their share prices tanked,
and investors went running to Momma!

John Heinzl - The Globe and Mail.

Wow, what a week on Wall Street. The big dogs of gluttony were given a kick in the rear by no less than the President of the United States. Did they derserve it. Yes they did. Do they deserve the financial and regulatory chains that will envelope them over the next few years. Most certainly.

When "banks" like Goldman Sachs use their clients money to buy tankers full of oil, sitting in docks around the world until the price of oil spikes, and when J.P. Morgan owns wind farms in direct competition with some of it's own clients and investors during a green energy revolution, it's time for change. When Goldman Sachs and other big banks drive up food prices in both the developing world and the developed world, it is time for change. When they pay out $160 Billion dollars in executive bonuses in the face of the devastation of the U.S. economy, it's time for change!

What do these companies make? Why they make money, lots and lots of money, and they make "no apologies". Now I know that statement goes to the very heart of capitalism, but at what cost. For each and every member of the United States congress, they have three lobbyists in Washington to look after their interests. For clarity, the American public have one person speaking for them for every "three" people speaking for the banking lobby, and that doesn't even address the tie in with actual Government bodies that were meant to regulate these behemoths and did not.

Maybe President Obama should consider financial advisers who "are not" the alumni of Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan. Just maybe, an outsiders point of view might bring clarity to a bungled regulatory regime. After a full year of "back burner" status while the health care debate took center stage, the economy is finally and decisively, in Obama's sights.

So where does this leave the small investor trying to find sense from the current fiasco? Technology, green energy and resource companies. Companies that actually make things that will make the world a better place and that will make life easier, and the environment cleaner. Companies where they still "make things" as well as make money. Buying such companies on the current dips could boost your Retirefund tremendously over the coming year.

Don't cry for the big banks. They always find a way to wriggle free. Watch for that to happen over the coming months.

Also see: Seeking Alpha


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Thursday, September 10, 2009

The Argument for investing in Gold!

gold cast barImage by hto2008 via Flickr

I am not a gold bug. I am a realist, but even at $1000 per ounce, gold may be a good investment right now for several reasons. Here are some of them:

The banks have had a great run this summer. After coming back almost 100% since it's lows in March, I have sold some of my TD Stock. (Yes it is still a good stock, but at 100% return, it's time to take some profit, no matter what stock you are in) I have also solidified some other gains, but continue to hold on to some small tech firms with huge upside potential such as Wilan Technologies and Ballard Power .

I don't believe the United States is anywhere near being "out of the woods" in it's recovery. A year after the crash, Wall Street is up to it's old tricks . There is a very good chance of an even larger correction in 2010 than we saw in 2008. No one really knows of course, but all the warning signs are in place. The bounce in the markets has been spurred by massive Government interventions, to the point where the most important man on Wall Street is Barrack Obama.

Many U.S. banks are still in serious trouble and hundreds more will fail over the next year. Institutions like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, etc, will "never" recover!!! The smartest guys in the room (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan etc) as always, have come out on top, but even they have an uphill battle as the USD battles runaway liquidity while they still have to value those "toxic Derivatives" that haven't gone away. Wall Street bankers are now trying to do to our life insurance policies, what they did to our mortgages. They are still trading in over the counter derivatives with no transparency, and are paying huge bonuses to executives (sound familiar).

The commercial real estate market is facing a real crisis of re-financing. It could actually cause the next crisis. The domestic real estate market is sliding again and will until at least 2011. Creditors like China are searching for other stores of value, outside of the U.S. dollar. Besides commodities, China is investing in gold and actually telling it's citizens to do the same. Several large U.S. hedge funds are also investing in gold and finally, the Hong Kong government is currently in the process of moving their gold reserves to a domestic site from London. Now, if there is another crisis caused by the paper creating Vultures of Wall Street , do you really think the American public will allow their administration to launch even more expensive bailouts? Neither do I. That is why many investors are turning to a standard of value that reaches back thousands of years.

Gold investors know full well that, most of the worlds gold supply is already above ground. That is why major firms often go back to old, proven, gold fields with new technology to find and extract what remains. Let's face it, the days of individuals panning for gold in a river bed are long gone, but that doesn't mean exploration stops. It merely changes.

While contemplating which gold investments to make, I have been following this story with keen interest. A small American gold company, Apollo Gold (TSX: APG) (NYSE - Amex: AGT) of Denver Colorado, started producing gold at it's Timmons, Ontario site called "Black Fox" earlier this year. Since May when it produced it's first ounces of gold from that mine, it has been on the radar of a number of gold speculators and has been rated a strong buy because of that production, which has reached over 32,000 ounces in four months. Many feel it is very much undervalued and currently under the radar.

What has gold bugs truly salivating is a recent drill result that, at least in one new hole, in it's "Grey Fox" site (approx 30 km away) indicated a result of 455 g of gold per ton of ore. Now, in an industry where 3-5 "grams" of gold per ton is considered worthwhile, well.... you can fill in the blanks. Since then they conducted more drilling in August at Grey Fox, which have not been officially released yet, but oddly, two weeks ago, Apollo bought up the mineral rights to the entire stretch of land between Black Fox and Grey Fox giving them access to the entire fault line where, in prior years, there was a very productive gold mine.

One of the previous occupants of these claims, Cameco, sold off it's gold interests to concentrate on Uranium (which it now dominates) In one of it's last reports on this area, it's geologists mentioned that they believed a deeper drill may result in a greater find. Apparently, that's exactly what Apollo Gold has done, with a stunning result! I've noticed the share price go from .30 cents to .45 cents in the past 10 days, as they raised another $10 Million through private placement, and no drill results have been officially released yet. I couldn't resist, so I bought in at .45

12 month Analysis estimates (see below) are $2.76 based solely on the Black Fox production. However, the Grey Fox strike has caused an even bigger stir but we won't know the full story until the most recent results are released in late October 2009. I know this part of the equation is speculation but, sometimes, you have to read the tea leaves as best you can then, take the plunge. I believe that, at this price, I am well protected with at least a 250% upside built in. As the rest of the world invests in gold in the traditional sense (bullion, bars, coins etc) or in the large companies which are already producing large quantities from their mines (Rio Tinto, Barrick, Hemlo etc) I think Apollo Gold might be a home run, maybe even a grand slam. One word of caution: Apollo has it's gold hedged at $876, however it's production cost is $400 and dropping.

The last time I made such an investment,( nine years ago) it was in Novagold at $1 share. It went to $18 At that time, gold was just over $300 per ounce. Many analysts are predicting gold in a year at $2,000. Some are even throwing out a top end of $3,000 or more. That seems extremely excessive to me, but the $2,000 range is possible. Certainly, $1200 in the short term is likely.

If you are tired of feeding the Vultures of Wall Street., you may wish to investigate this opportunity like I did. I am not risking too much and neither should you. Now, don't take my word for this speculative gold play (or anyone's word for that matter). Do your own research on this or any company you wish to invest in. You may wish to invest in gold by merely buying gold bars or coin or buying ETF's (exchange traded funds of gold stocks) as I am also considering.

Apollo Gold Corp - check it out (TSX: APG / NYSE Amex: AGT).

Update Sept 25th 2009, Apollo Stock - over 7 million shares traded in two days!

Nasdaq.com Target price for Apollo Gold
12 Month Price Target Range


2.72
Consensus




2.72









2.72




0.52
Previous Close


Gold Analysts Report!

Oct 16th update: First half of Grey Fox Drilling results - Spectacular!

New: How Gold will factor in the enhancement of solar Technology

New: $2,000 Gold is coming



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