Monday, April 29, 2013

Sir John Templeton was recognized as the best investor of his time, and maybe all time!

Sir John Marks Templeton (November 29, 1912 – July 8, 2008) was an American -born British stock investor, businessman and philanthropist. There is much written about this famous investor, but what you really want to know are how he thought about investing.

He made money as the great depression unwound into the second world war, by investing in, essentially, every penny stock on the NYSE.

 He made money in every decade since, averaging 16% per year from 1954 through 1992, with his "Templeton Growth Fund", the grandfather of all Globally diversified mutual funds.

Even after he retired, just prior to the dot com bubble, (when everyone else was saying "it's different this time") he predicted most of those companies would soon go bankrupt, and abruptly made over $80 Million dollars shorting most of them.  He said it was "the easiest money I ever made". He is a legend in investment circles and here are his 10 secrets to successful investing:

    1. Invest for real returns: "The true objective for any long-term investor is maximum total real return after taxes."

    2. Keep an open mind: "Never adopt permanently any type of asset or any selection method. Try to stay open minded and skeptical. Long term top results are achieved only by changing from popular to unpopular the types of securities you favour and your methods of selection."

    3. Never follow the crowd: "If you buy the same securities as other people, you will have the same results as other people. It is impossible to produce superior performance unless you do something different from the majority. Buying when others are despondently selling and selling when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward."

    4. Everything changes: "Bear markets have always been temporary. And so have bull markets."

    5. Avoid the popular: "When any method for selecting stocks becomes popular, you will need to switch to unpopular methods."

    6. Learn from your mistakes: "'This time is different" are among the most costly four words in market history."

    7. Buy during times of pessimism: "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell."

    8. Search worldwide: "To avoid having all your eggs in the wrong basket at the wrong time, you should diversify. When you search worldwide, you find more better bargains than when you monitor only one nation. You also benefit from more safety thanks to diversification."

    9. Hunt for value and bargains: "Too many investors focus on outlook and trend. Therefore, more profit is made by focusing on value. In the stock market the only way to get a bargain is to buy what most investors are selling."

    10. No-one knows everything: "An investor who has all of the answers doesn't even understand the questions."

    Sir John, as well as legendary investor Warren Buffett, have most of their best stock picks when there was blood in the streets, at the point of maximum pessimism.

    Basically, if you invest with the crowd, you will get the returns of the crowd.  If you can step outside of that box, when everyone else is panicking and selling, you just may be following in the footsteps of the best investors who ever lived.

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Quantitative counterfeiting from Central Banks and pure theft from banks in general will make you poorer

You do not own the money in your savings or checking accounts!

Let me repeat that!!

YOU DO NOT OWN the money that you "think" you own, which is currently sitting in your bank accounts. Actually, you don't even own the stocks that you "think" you own, which are now held in your brokerage account, but that is for another day and another article.

When you make a deposit at your local bank, you are not really making a deposit according to bank law. You are actually "loaning" the bank that money. It sits in their accounts and is actually listed as a liability on their books, "because" it is a loan from you! Basically, if the financial spit hits the fan, as it recently did in Cypress, the bank can quite legally take all or some of that money as the poor depositors in Cypress are now finding out. Is it merely Cypriot law that allows this? No it is not. It is western banking law and it applies to every country with a modern banking system.

This is one of the reasons why I like to hold physical gold, silver and/or platinum, as part of my investment strategy. Gold, silver and Platinum do not have a "third party liability" as does the fiat currency you have in your wallet, or the digital currency that makes up about 98% of ALL FIAT CURRENY in use today!


What would you do if suddenly you could not access your bank account?  What happens if your bank loans out all the money in their bank accounts, that you

"loaned" them (which they can legally do) to a "third party", lets say a large hedge fund, that goes bankrupt, or looses billions at the hands of a twenty something trader who "made a mistake" in our fast moving worldwide financial derivatives market, which now tops twenty Trillion dollars per day!!

Now the bank has essentially loaned out it's monetary base, which it borrowed from you, me and the guy down the street, and cannot replace it!

Think it can't happen? Then think again my friends, and while you are thinking, have a talk to one of those little old men in their 80's and 90's who sit on the park bench every day in your community, and keep all their money "out of the banks" that robbed them and their  


parents in the last great fiasco of the 1930's (Think Jimmy Stewart in the movie, "it's a wonderful life" when there is a run on his small town credit union)

I used to wonder why my father never trusted banks, and often carried large amounts of cash with him, or hid it in a place only he knew about. Now I don't wonder anymore. We are watching something very similar unfold in front of our eyes. something similar to the fiasco of the "dirty thirties" only with the added malaise of so-called "Quantitative Easing" thrown into the mix.

 Central banks from around the world, are printing what is essentially counterfeit money in fiat currencies from the U.S. dollar to the Euro, the Yen, the Ruble, The Rial, the Peso and the Yuan.In the 30's, you could buy bread for 2 cents a loaf. Except, that many people couldn't afford 2 cents a loaf, because they had no money at all. Quantitative easing was started partly because central bankers did not want a repeat of that era. The consequences (hyper inflation) could be that bread may actually cost a thousand dollars per loaf in 3 or 5 years. How about 5 thousand dollars per loaf! Think it can't happen? Think again! If my father were alive today, it would not be "cash" he was squirreling away, but gold, silver or platinum. Something tangible. Something that could not be debased by the pinstriped counterfeiters, or stolen outright by their lesser brethren. He was not an unreasonable man. On the contrary, he ran a small business and employed 20 people for the best part of 30 years.

$450,000 in cash dollars today (U.S. dollars) is the rough equivalent $10,000 was in 1913. that's a 98% drop in the value of a currency over 100 years, and it does not factor in the latest and greatest fiasco.

The German Wiemar Republic found out how devastating money printing was during those 1930's when they were trying to repay war reparations demanded by the allied nations by printing German
Marks in huge quantities, not unlike our modern day "Quantitative Easing" does today. The end result was a loaf of bread that took a whole wheelbarrow of cash to purchase (literally). It can be said with truth that another unforeseen consequence of that devastating policy was the rise of Adolph Hitler and the Nazi Party. We all know where that ended. (That is why Germany wants no part of modern day QE, which adds to the debacle in the Euro zone)

Now there is a hue a cry from the banksters (parroted by some in the investment industry that feed from their trough), that gold and silver are in decline as investments. I don't believe them for a moment. Do you? Bill Gross certainly doesn't.

He's not a banker and he's not a CNBC cheerleader. His decisions affect millions of bond investors. So when the largest bond fund investor in the world chooses to deleverage from those investments and begins to buy gold , I pay attention. Maybe we should all pay attention to the next few U.S. 10 year treasury auctions. (I'm sure Bill and his cohorts are)

A lack of the usual suspects in that auction, which takes place 8 times per year, will be the canary in the coal mine, so to speak, for a sudden, dramatic and violent change in the investment landscape. You see, the Fed does not control that auction. They only control the shorter term notes. So, when not enough buyers show up to buy the U.S. debt in the form of 10 yr notes, a rise in interest rates on those notes will take place to entice those reluctant buyers (Countries, major bond funds etc). That, my friends, will take the "fun" out of this dis"fun"tional market as the bond bomb destroys many nest eggs. Hopefully, yours won't be one of them. I sold the last of my bond funds six months ago.

Oh, and by the way, if you hold your gold/silver etc in a bank or bank fund, it is susceptible to the same rules your fiat currency accounts. You can lose it at the swipe of a pen.

Now, what are you doing about that  HP









Wednesday, March 20, 2013

The Graphene revolution - 10 Reasons you should own Focus Graphite Shares

Focus Graphite has been one of our core holdings in the emerging (lets call it the BURSTING) market for graphene. Here are 10 reasons why we bought into this Canadian junior.

1. Holds two properties containing strategically and economically important minerals
graphite and neodymium – needed for green initiatives, and; for European and U.S. national and
industrial security.

2. Economics: The Lac Knife graphite deposit holds the highest concentration of flake graphite in the world at 16%. And our positive Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA, Oct ‘12) outlined robust economics: mine life of 20 years, $3.7 billion total net revenue, $926 million pre-tax undiscounted cash
flow, a 32% pre-tax IRR with a $246 million pre-tax NPV at a 10% discount rate. Lac Knife is anticipated
to go in production in 2014

3. Supply conditions favor Focus Graphite. China controls the global market with over 70% of worldwide
graphite production and with the United States producing no graphite, security of supply is critical.

 Super Capacitors printed on Graphene
4. Market applications favour the company. Future demand will be driven by green technology initiatives
in the Carbon Age - lithium batteries, electronics - and advanced technology-grade graphite applications and products and the discovery of the "miracle material" graphene!

5. The numbers tell the story. Current world production of graphite is approximately 1.2mt of which 40% is
flake graphite. To meet future estimated demand, some 25 new mines would be required by 2020.

6. Strategic implications will dictate future development. The U.S. and Europe are vulnerable to
graphite and neodymium shortages. Both the E.U. and the U.S. Government have designated graphite
as a critical mineral.


7. The Kwyjibo REE property has a strategic partner in the Government of Quebec through SOQUEM, a wholly–owned subsidiary of Investissement Quebec which is responsible for fostering economic development and job creation in Quebec.

8. The discovery of graphene from graphite will change the way we work, live and play in the future. At one atom thick, it is the strongest material known to science. It conducts electricity better than copper, is transparent, can be shaped to suit any form and can be modified to suit different
industrial end-uses.

9. Graphene - the “new silicon” - provides limitless commercial opportunities through Focus Graphite’s
investment in Grafoid Inc. as a 40% partner. Grafoid invests in, manages, and co-develops application
solutions from economically scalable graphene.

10. Focus Graphite is positioned perfectly for long-term growth with the right resources, the right management and the right strategic partners as evidenced in its JV with Hydro-Quebec as technology partner
in graphite purification and anode production.

Focus Graphite Inc. (TSX VENTURE:FMS)(OTCQX:FCSMF)(FRANKFURT:FKC)

Ed note:  We also have positions in several other Graphite companies including Graftech Intl and Flinders.

Monday, March 4, 2013

Oil Juniors in South Australia should benefit from new discovery in Ackaringa Basin

 Rodinia Oil Co (TSE-ROZ) (OTC-RDOIF.PK) is a Canadian junior oil and gas company engaged in the exploration, acquisition and development of onshore resources in the South and Western part of Australia. 

Rodinia owns 85% of approximately 23 million acres of exploration land in South and West Australia, most of which is in the Officer Basin.

The Officer Basin is located about 40 km from the town of Coober Pedy, which is "ground Zero" of the recent large discovery reported on Jan 23rd by Linc Oil in the Ackaringa Basin. (See: the $20 Trillion showdown at Coober Pedy)

On Jan 23rd, Linc Oil (ASX-LNC) announced to the world a discovery that may change the dynamic in the oil sector for years to come. (See article at Seeking Alpha) Two separate firms who consult for Linc energy estimate there is somewhere between 106 and 233 billion barrels in the Ackaringa Basin. These reserves, if true, will boost Australia's oil reserves to the level of Saudi Arabia. Real estate prices in Coober Pedy have already popped 30% since the announcement, along with the price of Linc Oil shares.

Linc Oil is a mid-tier Australian producer which has traded as high as $29 per share recently.  I believe there will be  a pullback in the near term at which point I may try to ease into this stock, hopefully, in the $25 range or lower.

In the mean time, I am picking up some shares of other juniors in close proximity to this discovery, including Rodinia Oil.  Remember, penny stocks are often volatile and highly speculative.  They are not for the faint of heart.  Having said that, I usually play 10% of my portfolio in this volatile game and have had great success over the years. (note; I have also suffered great dissapointments - be careful out there)

At .09c per share, If Rodinia has good results with it's recent drills, it could be a home run. As I said before, not for the faint of heart!

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Graphene Age: Europe finally gearing up!




From: investingraphene.com

on  at 9:13 pm
Posted In: Market Reports
Although Europe is the birth place and spiritual home of graphene, it has long been recognised that the continent is losing the race to commercialise the material.


A recent report on the distribution of patents relating to graphene has shown that China and America now lead the field. Cambridge IP, a company with a long standing interest in the graphene industry, claim that UK businesses and universities produced only 54 patents by the end of 2012; whereas China was responsible for 40x this amount, and the US approximately 30x as many.

However, this seeming loss of momentum is hopefully about to be forestalled. Announcements from the UK government and the European Commission promise large sums of investment in the graphene industry which will bolster the micro economy in nanomaterials and enable European businesses to regain their foothold.
The funding promised by the European Commission, which amounts to a not insignificant half a billion Euros, is the result of a two and a half year Future and Emerging Technologies (FET) contest.

 The bid, led by Professor Kinaret, includes over a hundred European research groups, among them the Nobel prize winners Andre Geim, Konstantin Novoselov, Albert Fert and Klaus von Klitzing; with such a strength in the consortium there can be no doubt that this is a concerted attempt to wrest back the initiative for Europe.

Konstantin Novoselov and Andre Geim received the Nobel prize for physics for their work with Graphene.
Feeding into the economy over a ten year period, the money has been awarded to the Graphene programme led by theoretical physicist Jari Kinaret at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden. An initial award of 54 million Euros will be made over the next 30 month in order to ramp up the current levels of research and development.


Speaking of how industry is central to the Eurpeon intiative, Professor Kinaret has commented,
“The involvement of industry can be divided into three elements. There is a management component, where three of the nine seats on our strategic advisory council are filled by the industrial sector in the form of Nokia, Airbus and Texas Instruments. Then there is a larger group of companies who are research partners and who account for at least 14 percent of the total budget; a figure which could increase to almost 30 percent after open applications have been received.
Thirdly, there is a group of companies who want to monitor development but are not persuaded that the technology is mature enough yet for them to enter the field themselves in terms of research. These include AB Volvo and Autoliv.
The whole idea is that academia and business will work better together. In Europe we are strong in research, but up to now we have been less successful in deriving financial benefit from research than our counterparts in Asia and the USA… This is commonly referred to as the European paradox. This is what our flagship is trying to address. If we succeed, the entire “European fleet” will benefit.
The most rapid breakthroughs will be seen in the field of printable and flexile electronics. The advantages in this field are huge compared with existing technology. It is estimated that the market will be worth USD 60 billion a year by 2020, of which more than half will be in flexible electronics. In the USA, graphene is already being used in packaging material which alerts when someone tries to break it open.”

The support coming from the European Commission is only one of the fronts on which the graphene industry is being financed. As commented on in earlier articles, the UK government is also pledging its support by way of a £21 million package of investment that will see several universities benfiting.

Receiving the lion’s share of the money is Cambridge University, who have today announced the construction of a £12 million specialist research centre. The Cambridge team of scientists are involved in researching graphene flexible electronics and opto-electronics, which could include things like touch-screens and other display devices.

And you wil not have to wait long for the work at  the Cambridge Graphene Centre to commence; it is planned that the centre will start its activities on February 1st 2013, with a dedicated facility due to open at the end of the year.

Professor Andrea Ferrari, who will be the Centre’s Director, said:
“We are now in the second phase of graphene research, following the award of the Nobel Prize to Geim and Novoselov. That means we are targeting applications and manufacturing processes, and broadening research to other two-dimensional materials and hybrid systems. The integration of these new materials could bring a new dimension to future technologies, creating faster, thinner, stronger, more flexible broadband devices.”
The centre will initially focus on improving the chemical vapour deposition production of graphene and will hopefully open up a wide avenue of possibility in terms of future devices and applications.
The remainder of the investment coming from the UK is to be divided amongst the other universities. Imperial College London will receive over £4.5m to investigate aerospace applications of graphene whilst the other successful projects are based at Durham University, the University of Manchester, the University of Exeter and Royal Holloway.

The universities will themselves contribute about £2m to the overall effort, and will work with industrial partners including Nokia (NYSE: NOK) , BAE Systems  (LSE: BA.L), Procter & Gamble(LSE: PG), Qinetiq(LSE: QQ), Rolls-Royce (LSE: RR.L), Dyson (LSE: DYS), Sharp (6753.T) and Philips Research (NYSE: PHG)- the pooled resources of which will add a further £12m in investment.

Clearly, the strategic response within Europe to the paradox of under commercialisation will take several years to bear fruit. Whether the response to the growth of the graphene industry has been swift enough will be decided, to some extent, by the speed with which Europe manages to claw its way back up the table of world patents. Whatever happens, Europe government, and a small clique of European companies, have nailed their colours to the mast of the graphene industry. The potential of the material is obvious, all we need to do know is make it pay.
Sources:
Cambridge University
Nature
Chalmers University
BBC